How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?3.5%
Open$33Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NY bond market: Long-term bonds continue to rise; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.60%, driven by buying pressure due to lower oil prices.
POLL: US 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TO DECLINE TO 4.30% IN THREE MONTHS, 4.28% IN SIX MONTHS, AND 4.26% IN A YEAR (VERSUS 4.26%, 4.26%, AND 4.25%, RESPECTIVELY, IN THE APRIL POLL). ...
Poll: US 10-year Treasury yield to decline to 4.30% in three months, 4.28% in six months, and 4.26% in a year (versus 4.26%, 4.26%, and 4.25%, respectively, in the April poll).
NOReuters99%match65¢+52%
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield to Decline to 4.30% in Three Months, 4.28% in Six Months and 4.26% in a Year (Versus 4.26%, 4.26% and 4.25%, Respectively, in April Poll)
YESCNBC99%match29¢-97%
10-year Treasury yield dips as investors await final economic data of 2025
YESCNBC99%match25¢-96%
10-year Treasury yield dips as investors assess interest rate outlook for 2026
NOCNBC98%match72¢+38%
Treasury yields fall as markets await key jobs report
NOFinancialJuice98%match44¢+125%
Treasury WI 10 Yr yield 4.175% before $39 Bln auction
Where does the news lean?
4YES14NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
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