How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?Below 2.0%
Open$5Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
POLL: US 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TO DECLINE TO 4.30% IN THREE MONTHS, 4.28% IN SIX MONTHS, AND 4.26% IN A YEAR (VERSUS 4.26%, 4.26%, AND 4.25%, RESPECTIVELY, IN THE APRIL POLL). ...
Poll: US 10-year Treasury yield to decline to 4.30% in three months, 4.28% in six months, and 4.26% in a year (versus 4.26%, 4.26%, and 4.25%, respectively, in the April poll).
NOReuters98%match90¢+9%
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield to Decline to 4.30% in Three Months, 4.28% in Six Months and 4.26% in a Year (Versus 4.26%, 4.26% and 4.25%, Respectively, in April Poll)
NOCNBC98%match91¢+8%
Treasury yields lower as markets brace for retail sales data
NOBloomberg99%match91¢+8%
The 10-year Treasury note’s yield is headed for a fifth straight week of minimal change, rivaling its longest stretch of inertia in the past two decades
YESCNBC99%match9¢-78%
10-year Treasury yield dips as investors assess interest rate outlook for 2026
YESCNBC98%match9¢-78%
Treasury yields fall as markets await key jobs report
Where does the news lean?
3YES5NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
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