How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?Below 3.9%
Open$57Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Cailian Press reported on September 9 that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.8184%, the highest level since November 2023.
NY bond market: Long-term bonds continue to rise; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.60%, driven by buying pressure due to lower oil prices.
NOCNBC99%match11¢+791%
10-year Treasury yield dips as investors assess interest rate outlook for 2026
NOCNBC98%match6¢+1533%
Treasury yields fall as markets await key jobs report
NOFinancialJuice98%match7¢+1300%
Treasury WI 10 Yr yield 4.175% before $39 Bln auction
YESFinancialJuice98%match93¢-98%
Treasury WI three-year yield 3.622% before $58 billion auction.
Where does the news lean?
1YES11NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
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See all outcomes for How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.