How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

OpenOutcomes9as of

Market pricing makes 3.9% the favorite at 5% across 9 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

4.0%100%
3.9%5%
3.6%5%
2.0%4%
3.8%3%
3.0%2%
1.0%2%
3.7%2%
3.5%1%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

3.6%Walter Bloomberg95%match95¢
30-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BECOMES MARKET’S NEW FEAR GAUGE • • The US 30-year Treasury yield has become a key market focus as concerns over government debt and fiscal credibility intensify. • • A Bloomberg survey shows 66% expect the 10-year yield to exceed 5% this year. • • But KB Securities says investors are too pessimistic. • • It argues policymakers still have tools to contain yields, including Treasury buybacks, fiscal tightening, Operation Twist and bank deregulation.
3.8%Walter Bloomberg95%match97¢
30-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BECOMES MARKET’S NEW FEAR GAUGE • • The US 30-year Treasury yield has become a key market focus as concerns over government debt and fiscal credibility intensify. • • A Bloomberg survey shows 66% expect the 10-year yield to exceed 5% this year. • • But KB Securities says investors are too pessimistic. • • It argues policymakers still have tools to contain yields, including Treasury buybacks, fiscal tightening, Operation Twist and bank deregulation.
3.5%Walter Bloomberg95%match99¢
30-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BECOMES MARKET’S NEW FEAR GAUGE • • The US 30-year Treasury yield has become a key market focus as concerns over government debt and fiscal credibility intensify. • • A Bloomberg survey shows 66% expect the 10-year yield to exceed 5% this year. • • But KB Securities says investors are too pessimistic. • • It argues policymakers still have tools to contain yields, including Treasury buybacks, fiscal tightening, Operation Twist and bank deregulation.
3.9%Walter Bloomberg95%match79¢+20%
U.S. TREASURY YIELDS SET TO EASE • • A Reuters poll sees Treasury yields declining over the next year. • • 10-Year Yield: • • 3 months: 4.50% • • 6 months: 4.50% • • 12 months: 4.34% • 2-Year Yield: • • 3 months: 4.07% • • 6 months: 3.92% • • 12 months: 3.80% • • However, 18 of 22 bond strategists say the 10-year yield is more likely to overshoot expectations than undershoot them over the next three months.
3.6%Walter Bloomberg95%match94¢+1%
U.S. TREASURY YIELDS SET TO EASE • • A Reuters poll sees Treasury yields declining over the next year. • • 10-Year Yield: • • 3 months: 4.50% • • 6 months: 4.50% • • 12 months: 4.34% • 2-Year Yield: • • 3 months: 4.07% • • 6 months: 3.92% • • 12 months: 3.80% • • However, 18 of 22 bond strategists say the 10-year yield is more likely to overshoot expectations than undershoot them over the next three months.
3.8%Walter Bloomberg95%match95¢+2%
U.S. TREASURY YIELDS SET TO EASE • • A Reuters poll sees Treasury yields declining over the next year. • • 10-Year Yield: • • 3 months: 4.50% • • 6 months: 4.50% • • 12 months: 4.34% • 2-Year Yield: • • 3 months: 4.07% • • 6 months: 3.92% • • 12 months: 3.80% • • However, 18 of 22 bond strategists say the 10-year yield is more likely to overshoot expectations than undershoot them over the next three months.
3.0%Walter Bloomberg94%match95¢+3%
U.S. TREASURY YIELDS SET TO EASE • • A Reuters poll sees Treasury yields declining over the next year. • • 10-Year Yield: • • 3 months: 4.50% • • 6 months: 4.50% • • 12 months: 4.34% • 2-Year Yield: • • 3 months: 4.07% • • 6 months: 3.92% • • 12 months: 3.80% • • However, 18 of 22 bond strategists say the 10-year yield is more likely to overshoot expectations than undershoot them over the next three months.
3.7%Walter Bloomberg94%match97¢+1%
U.S. TREASURY YIELDS SET TO EASE • • A Reuters poll sees Treasury yields declining over the next year. • • 10-Year Yield: • • 3 months: 4.50% • • 6 months: 4.50% • • 12 months: 4.34% • 2-Year Yield: • • 3 months: 4.07% • • 6 months: 3.92% • • 12 months: 3.80% • • However, 18 of 22 bond strategists say the 10-year yield is more likely to overshoot expectations than undershoot them over the next three months.
3.5%Walter Bloomberg94%match99¢
U.S. TREASURY YIELDS SET TO EASE • • A Reuters poll sees Treasury yields declining over the next year. • • 10-Year Yield: • • 3 months: 4.50% • • 6 months: 4.50% • • 12 months: 4.34% • 2-Year Yield: • • 3 months: 4.07% • • 6 months: 3.92% • • 12 months: 3.80% • • However, 18 of 22 bond strategists say the 10-year yield is more likely to overshoot expectations than undershoot them over the next three months.
3.9%Reuters92%match90¢+6%
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield More Likely to Come in Higher Than Expectations Than Lower Over the Next Three Months, Said 18 of 22 Bond Strategists
3.6%Reuters92%match94¢+1%
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield More Likely to Come in Higher Than Expectations Than Lower Over the Next Three Months, Said 18 of 22 Bond Strategists
3.8%Reuters93%match95¢+2%
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield More Likely to Come in Higher Than Expectations Than Lower Over the Next Three Months, Said 18 of 22 Bond Strategists
3.7%Reuters92%match97¢+1%
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield More Likely to Come in Higher Than Expectations Than Lower Over the Next Three Months, Said 18 of 22 Bond Strategists
3.9%Reuters95%match90¢+6%
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield to Decline to 4.50% in Three Months, Hold for Next Three Months and 4.34% in a Year (vs 4.48%, 4.48% and 4.39%, Respectively in July Poll)
3.6%Reuters95%match94¢+1%
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield to Decline to 4.50% in Three Months, Hold for Next Three Months and 4.34% in a Year (vs 4.48%, 4.48% and 4.39%, Respectively in July Poll)
3.8%Reuters96%match95¢+2%
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield to Decline to 4.50% in Three Months, Hold for Next Three Months and 4.34% in a Year (vs 4.48%, 4.48% and 4.39%, Respectively in July Poll)
3.0%Reuters95%match95¢+3%
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield to Decline to 4.50% in Three Months, Hold for Next Three Months and 4.34% in a Year (vs 4.48%, 4.48% and 4.39%, Respectively in July Poll)
3.7%Reuters95%match97¢+1%
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield to Decline to 4.50% in Three Months, Hold for Next Three Months and 4.34% in a Year (vs 4.48%, 4.48% and 4.39%, Respectively in July Poll)
3.5%Reuters95%match99¢
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield to Decline to 4.50% in Three Months, Hold for Next Three Months and 4.34% in a Year (vs 4.48%, 4.48% and 4.39%, Respectively in July Poll)
3.9%nikkei.com92%match95¢
NY bond market: Long-term bonds remain flat; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.61%; lower oil prices provide support.
3.6%nikkei.com93%match94¢+1%
NY bond market: Long-term bonds remain flat; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.61%; lower oil prices provide support.
3.8%nikkei.com92%match93¢+4%
NY bond market: Long-term bonds remain flat; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.61%; lower oil prices provide support.
3.0%nikkei.com92%match96¢+2%
NY bond market: Long-term bonds remain flat; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.61%; lower oil prices provide support.
3.7%nikkei.com92%match97¢+1%
NY bond market: Long-term bonds remain flat; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.61%; lower oil prices provide support.
3.5%nikkei.com92%match99¢
NY bond market: Long-term bonds remain flat; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.61%; lower oil prices provide support.
3.8%yna.co.kr92%match5¢-40%
Treasury bond yields fall across the board... 3-year yield intraday at 3.688%
3.8%yna.co.kr92%match9¢-67%
Treasury bond yields fall across the board... 3-year yield intraday at 3.733%
3.9%nikkei.com92%match91¢+4%
NY bond market sees decline in long-term bonds; 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.67% due to persistent inflation concerns.
3.6%nikkei.com93%match90¢+6%
NY bond market sees decline in long-term bonds; 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.67% due to persistent inflation concerns.
3.8%nikkei.com92%match87¢+11%
NY bond market sees decline in long-term bonds; 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.67% due to persistent inflation concerns.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Related events