Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
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Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Event sources: Washington and Tehran have agreed to uranium enrichment inside Iran at a level of 3.67%
Al Arabiya sources: A preliminary agreement on reducing Iranian uranium enrichment is likely.
Iran refuses to abandon or surrender uranium enrichment, asserting that enrichment is a fundamental part of its nuclear program.
IRAN REFUSES TO ABANDON URANIUM ENRICHMENT • • Iran's atomic energy chief Mohammad Eslami says Tehran will not abandon its nuclear enrichment program, insisting it remains a national right. • • The statement follows U.S. Vice President JD Vance's demand for meaningful reductions in Iran's enrichment capacity as a condition for a nuclear deal. • • Although Iran is reportedly not currently enriching uranium, the IAEA estimates roughly 200 kg of enriched uranium may remain at Isfahan. • • Tehran maintains its nuclear activities comply with international safeguards.
Live: Iran says it won’t give up uranium enrichment or surrender stockpiles
Iran will not give up uranium enrichment, said Mohammad Eslami, vice president and head of the country's Atomic Energy Organization (AEOI). His words were reported by the Iranian channel SNN. He noted that uranium enrichment is an integral part of nuclear processes, stressing that there is no talk of its possible transfer. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: Iran's supreme leader has banned the export of enriched uranium abroad, Reuters writes, citing two senior Iranian sources. According to them, Mojtaba Khamenei issued a corresponding directive. This decision has hardened Tehran's stance on one of the main US demands in the peace talks. According to the agency's interlocutors, sending uranium will make the country more vulnerable to future attacks from the US and Israel. Khamenei's decision followed a consensus within Iran's leadership. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]
Iran agreed to suspend uranium enrichment - media
Media: Iran agreed to suspend uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief
US GOVTS – Reports Iran agrees to halt uranium enrichment, Qatar-US mediator talks, lead latest yield and oil declines
Iran Agrees to Suspend Uranium Enrichment in Exchange for US Sanctions Relief - Al Hadath Al Hadath correspondent, citing sources: Iran has agreed to halt uranium enrichment in exchange for easing US sanctions. #AlHadath_Breaking - Al Hadath Breaking
Iran Agrees To Suspend Uranium Enrichment In Exchange For US Sanctions Relief - Al Hadath •
Al-Hadath correspondent, citing sources: Iran has agreed to halt uranium enrichment in exchange for easing US sanctions.
Live: Iran will not back down from 60 percent enrichment, says parliament committee chairman
NONews91%match88¢+10%
(Iran's Al Alam) President Pezeshkian to Fox News: We will abandon uranium enrichment to 9660 in accordance with international law and the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Iran will not compromise on enrichment rights, FM spox says • •
Iran’s foreign ministry says that Tehran’s right to enrich uranium was “indisputable” although the level of enrichment is “negotiable.” • •
The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman confirms that his country will not relinquish its right to uranium enrichment. #AlArabyTV
Iranian Foreign Ministry: There is room for dialogue regarding the level and type of uranium enrichment.
Iranian Foreign Ministry: We uphold our right to enrichment, but the percentage is negotiable.
BREAKING: Iran foreign ministry insists on right to enrich uranium, says level negotiable, AFP reports. • • More here:
Where does the news lean?
12YES52NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.