Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?September
ResolvedOutcome: No$23Kas of
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16 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Oil Market in Product Supply Shortage In the week ending September 25, 2026, the oil market was simultaneously affected by geopolitical developments in West Asia, disruptions in oil transport routes, and an intensifying shortage of oil products; conditions that, along with increased oil exports by some producers, indicate the formation of a fragile balance in the global oil market. The oil market was between two opposing forces this week: on the one hand, signs of diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions in West Asia and an increased likelihood of a partial return to maritime trade flow exerted downward pressure on prices, and on the other hand, operational restrictions on oil and product transport routes and increased transportation and insurance costs supported prices. The Strait of Hormuz remained one of the important variables affecting the oil market. Ship tracking data showed that daily commercial vessel crossings fell to fewer than 10 on some weekdays, while the 10-day average was reported to be around 18. shana.ir/news/2969801 @Shananewsroom
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the start of the war blocked roughly 15 million barrels of oil a day. Seven months on, Gulf producers have rerouted crude around the chokepoint, and oil holds near $100 a barrel rather than the price shock many feared. • • The workaround carries a cost. Spot charter rates to transit Hormuz reached $1 million a day on September 11, roughly $26 a barrel in freight alone, about a quarter of the crude's own value. • • Windward cited in The Independent.
Cailian Press reported on September 23 that Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened or any negotiations will be conducted as long as Iran's conditions are not met.
Reuters reported on Monday, September 20, that traceable ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply as tensions in the Persian Gulf continue and the United States and the Islamic Republic remain at a stalemate. Over the weekend, 17 cargo ships passed through the strait, compared to 37 a week ago. Before the war began on March 30, about 125 large commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily. Despite the drop in traceable traffic, Middle Eastern producers are still exporting oil on tankers that have turned off their transmitters, the report said. Kepler data showed that 22 tankers carrying 42 million barrels of crude oil left the Strait of Hormuz in the week ending September 13, with Saudi Arabia and Iraq each accounting for 43 percent of that volume. Reuters also reported that Houthi attacks on Aramco’s East-West pipeline have prompted Saudi Arabia to increase oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
12:15/ September 17
Attacks on vessels and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have increased. Two large tankers have been attacked since last night. Contrary to media reports, traffic through the southern route is limited and very risky. CENTCOM is unable to continue escorting tankers at all hours, and escorted ships regularly hit mines. A missile attack on US warships has successfully completed its testing stages.
Reuters reported on Thursday, September 16, based on shipping data, that the traffic of cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz fell to 3 on Wednesday. This was far below the daily average of about 17 ships over the past 10 days, according to Reuters.
The British Maritime Operations Centre reported on Sunday, September 12, that three vessels were targeted by unidentified projectiles in two separate incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, and one of the tankers caught fire. According to a report published by the organisation through the Joint Maritime Intelligence Centre, on September 9, two vessels were each targeted by two unidentified projectiles while passing through the Strait of Hormuz near the coast of Oman, and one of them caught fire. In another incident on September 12, an oil tanker sent a distress signal after being hit by an unidentified projectile in the Strait of Hormuz. The management of the tanker reported a severe fire on board hours later. The British Maritime Operations Centre assessed the threat level to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz as still "severe".
Iran will present a new route in the Strait of Hormuz at a meeting in Oman, said Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. "At this meeting, the participating countries will be briefed on the details of the agreement [reached between Iran and Oman]. They will be presented with relevant maps, and a joint statement will be made so that these documents can ultimately be submitted to the UN's International Maritime Organization (IMO) for registration," the Al-Araby Al-Jadeed portal reported him as saying. An agreement between Tehran and Muscat is planned to be signed at the meeting. However, it does not imply lifting the general blockade of the strait. According to the minister, the agreement defines the framework and procedures for maritime navigation if conditions allow the strait to be opened. To achieve this, the US must return to fulfilling its obligations under the Islamabad Memorandum, he added. Yesterday, it became known that Iran conveyed to the US through intermediaries seven conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz. On September 9, Iran imposed a no-ship zone east of the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC stated that any vessel entering this water without coordination with Tehran would face sanctions. Vessels that violate the ban will be permanently barred from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. More IZ RU news in MAX
The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization announced that a vessel on September 10 and an oil tanker on September 12 were attacked while passing through the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman. There is still disruption to navigation systems and traffic in the area should continue to be carried out with caution.
Iran has conveyed seven conditions to the United States through intermediaries for opening the Strait of Hormuz, the Tasnim news agency reports. The publication cites its own source, who claims that the southern route will be closed, although Washington insists on its reopening. Furthermore, Iran and Oman have agreed on the details of new routes for entering and exiting the Strait of Hormuz. "As far as we understand, the route of entry into the Persian Gulf lies entirely within Iranian territorial waters, while part of the route of exit from the Persian Gulf also lies within Iranian territorial waters," the agency quotes the source as saying. On September 9, Iran imposed a no-go zone for shipping east of the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC stated that any vessel entering this water area without coordination with Tehran will face sanctions. Vessels that violate the ban will be permanently barred from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. More IZ RU news in MAX
FWD from Fars Economy: Only one Chinese ship passed through the Strait of Hormuz today Maritime tracking account, Osint says that only the Chinese tanker Lisa with a Roshan tracking system was seen passing through the Strait of Hormuz today. Hours ago, Trump had repeated again that "we control the Strait and have removed naval mines from it." Early September, Trump and CENTCOM had been talking about the complete demining of the Strait of Hormuz for a week, and on September 28, the United States claimed to have destroyed Iranian mine-launching rockets by attacking the Lark, but the next day, the Revolutionary Guards announced that an oil tanker had hit a mine in the southern corridor.
@Farseconomy - Link
New details about the final understanding between Iran and Oman / The Strait of Hormuz will not be opened with this understanding Informed source:
The understanding between Iran and Oman was finalized in early September and will be announced soon in the presence of the foreign ministers of the Persian Gulf countries.
The route of entry to the Persian Gulf is completely in Iranian waters and part of the exit route is also in Iranian waters; traffic under Iranian arrangements and the southern route will be closed.
This understanding does not mean the opening of the Strait of Hormuz; Iran has announced 7 conditions to the United States and the strait will remain closed until they are implemented./ Mehr @IRIBNEWS_COM
The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization on the social network X, referring to the CENTCOM statement about the targeting of three Iranian oil tankers by American forces on September 4, stated: "Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a lower level than usual. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also continues to attempt to attack vessels and disrupt their traffic."
The New York Times reported that more than six months into the war, Iranian attacks on ships have continued, and despite the US military's efforts to protect tankers, the amount of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz is still much lower than before the war. According to data from tanker tracking company TankerTrackers, an average of 6.7 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily in the seven days ending Thursday; a figure nearly 60 percent lower than the daily average in the months before the war. A New York Times investigation shows that from July 10 to September 30, at least 23 ships in the Strait of Hormuz were hit by Iranian attacks. Last week, two crew members of a Saudi oil tanker were killed in an attack on the ship off the coast of Oman. Two other sailors were killed in attacks between August 3 and September 30. CENTCOM spokesman Tim Hawkins told the newspaper that the US security operation, which began in late May, has helped about 1,600 commercial ships and about 800 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Joint Maritime Intelligence Center, on Thursday, September 3, called the threat level in the region's waterways "severe" and announced that the attacks and efforts of the Revolutionary Guard Corps to target or disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continue, including the flying of drones, targeted surveillance of commercial ships, and occasional radio contacts with them. According to the report, commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains below normal levels, and independent data indicates single-digit numbers of ships passing in both directions. The report also mentions the killing of two crew members of the "Sider" oil tanker, which was attacked on the evening of September 29 while passing eastward through the Strait of Hormuz.
OPEC+ agrees to increase production again in September, but the outlook remains uncertain due to Iran's renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Where does the news lean?
7YES47NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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