Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?August
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Strait traffic trends lower • • #MarineTraffic data show vessel traffic declining across both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb on 25 August. The Strait of Hormuz recorded five confirmed crossings, down 28.6% day on day from seven. Two vessels entered the Middle East Gulf and three exited, with all five using the Iranian Unilateral Scheme. • • Bab el-Mandeb recorded 36 confirmed crossings, down 7.7% from 39. Fifteen vessels entered the Red Sea and 21 exited. Two dark transits were also identified, adding to continued scrutiny of #vessel movements through the region’s key maritime chokepoints.
UK Maritime Trade Operations: We have recorded 18 transits out of the Gulf and 21 into it since February 28, which is about 4% of pre-conflict levels. Transit through the Strait of Hormuz is about 90% lower than pre-conflict levels. The southern route in the Strait of Hormuz is the most dangerous passage and saw 14 of the 16 incidents between July 6 and August 6. There is a continued decline in shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, contrary to US claims.
Tankertrackers, a tanker tracking company, announced on Thursday, August 10, that only five million barrels of oil a day are passing through the US Navy's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Tankertrackers, the location of the crude oil loading or transfer does not affect this amount, and the total oil passing through this line is five million barrels a day. The latest data from shipping data analysis company Kepler shows that cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a very low level, and on Wednesday, August 10, only nine cargo ships passed through this waterway.
Reuters reported on Wednesday, August 19, citing data from MarineTraffic, an international shipping tracking company, that ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has decreased and most ship owners are refusing to pass through the waterway. According to the report, the lack of clear signs of the Strait of Hormuz reopening after it was blocked during the Iran-Iran war is the reason why most ship owners are refusing to pass through this route.
UAE oil exports to Asia reduced following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is reducing its oil export quota to Asian customers, including China, India, Japan and South Korea, for August and September following the suspension of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. This reduction is announced more than the usual summer trend and comes at a time when the UAE is facing serious restrictions on oil exports due to its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports, UAE oil exports have decreased from about 3.5 to 4 million barrels per day before the crisis to about 1.5 million barrels per day. Get the latest news:
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UAE reduces oil sales to Asia Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is reducing its oil export quota to Asian customers, including China, India, Japan and South Korea, for August and September, following the suspension of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. This reduction is announced more than the usual summer trend and comes at a time when the UAE is facing serious restrictions on oil exports due to its dependence on Hormuz. According to reports, UAE oil exports have decreased from about 3.5 to 4 million barrels per day before the crisis to about 1.5 million barrels. The attack on several Emirati tankers and the increasing concerns of shipowners have also caused Abu Dhabi to review its export policy.
@Farsna - Link
As tensions continue in the Strait of Hormuz, new Kepler data shows that only six commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, August 16, down from a 10-day average of 11. Kepler said no crude oil or LNG tankers were recorded among the vessels. Iran International's Marzieh Hosseini reports on the latest reports on ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
The speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the main negotiator with the United States says Tehran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports and meets some other conditions. On Tuesday, August 16, in a speech before the parliament's order, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf described Iran's other conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz as "the release of frozen assets, the lifting of the oil embargo, and the end of threats and military operations on all fronts, and other conditions" of the Islamabad memorandum of understanding.
@VahidHeadline @VahidOnline
FWD from KhabarGraphic: The Line of Invalidation of Statistics and Figures on Trump's Claims about Hormuz The Wall Street Journal, in a report examining ship traffic statistics, transit routes, attacks, insurance costs and the volume of oil that has left the market since the start of the war, presents a picture that is far from Donald Trump's claim about America's "complete control" over the Strait of Hormuz. The sum of these numbers presents a clear picture: maritime traffic has dropped from more than 130 ships per day to 14 ships, the average traffic in July was only 26 and in June 33 ships, out of 166 crossings in August, only two were made through the US-supported route, and insurance costs have also increased from 0.25% to 10%. In addition to removing more than 2.6 billion barrels of oil from the market, these figures show that control of the Strait of Hormuz is in the hands of Iran, not the US. @Khabar_Graphic
@TasnimNews
Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the speaker of the parliament, said in an online session on Tuesday, August 17, that the Strait of Hormuz will not open until the naval blockade of Iranian ports is lifted, frozen assets are released, the oil embargo is ended, and threats and military operations on all fronts are stopped. He said that the Islamic Republic's military forces, with "intelligent operational planning" and under the leadership of Mojtaba Khamenei, "slapped the enemy in the face so hard that the whole world acknowledged our victory." Qalibaf added that the opportunity created following the memorandum of understanding and ceasefire has helped increase the economic resilience and rebuild the Islamic Republic's defense capabilities. He emphasized: "The Islamic Republic of Iran is ready to inflict a heavier defeat on the enemy than before, commensurate with his actions and encroachments."
Marine Traffic announced that maritime traffic in the two vital waterways of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea had mixed trends last week. Transits through the Strait of Hormuz decreased by 19.5 percent from 118 to 95. Daily traffic also decreased from a peak of 19 on August 10 to just three on August 15.
MarineTraffic: • • Maritime traffic in recent days has split into two routes at two key critical points. • • Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz decreased by 19.5%, falling to 95 crossings from 118 previously. Daily crossings also dropped from a peak of 19 on August 11 to just three on August 16. • • Of the total crossings, 51 used the Iranian route, while 44 were on unidentified routes. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait increased by 6.7%, reaching 254 crossings.
There is a greater tendency to use the Iranian route in the Strait of Hormuz Marine Traffic:
Marine traffic has been divided into two routes in recent days at two key critical points. Transit through the Strait of Hormuz fell by 19.5 percent to 95, down from 118 previously, and daily traffic fell from a peak of 19 on August 11 to just three on August 16. Of the total crossings, 51 used the Iranian route and 44 were unspecified. Bab al-Mandab crossings increased by 6.7 percent to 254. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
Hormuz Traffic Falls, Red Sea Resilient • • Maritime traffic diverged across two critical chokepoints last week. Strait of Hormuz crossings fell 19.5% to 95 from 118, with daily traffic declining from a peak of 19 on 11 August to just three on 16 August. Of the total, 51 crossings used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme and 44 were Route Undetermined. No Hormuz TSS or Omani-route crossings were recorded. • Bab el-Mandeb crossings increased 6.7% to 254 from 238, with 150 vessels entering the Red Sea and 104 exiting. Dark transits fell sharply to 16 from 40, although compliance and security exposure persisted, with 29 sanctioned and 39 shadow fleet crossings recorded during the week.
Hormuz Traffic Falls, Red Sea Resilient • • Maritime traffic diverged across two critical chokepoints last week. Strait of Hormuz crossings fell 19.5% to 95 from 118, with daily traffic declining from a peak of 19 on 11 August to just three on 16 August. Of the total, 51 crossings used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme and 44 were Route Undetermined. No Hormuz TSS or Omani-route crossings were recorded. • Bab el-Mandeb crossings increased 6.7% to 254 from 238, with 150 vessels entering the Red Sea and 104 exiting. Dark transits fell sharply to 16 from 40, although compliance and security exposure persisted, with 29 sanctioned and 39 shadow fleet crossings recorded during the week.
Kepler data shows that commercial ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a near standstill over the weekend after three vessels operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company were attacked. According to Reuters, only five cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, and none were recorded on Sunday, August 15, compared to 31 at the end of last week. Reuters wrote that some ships may have passed through the waterway with silent tracking systems. Before the US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic in March, more than 130 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily, and one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments were transported through this route. Abbas Araqchi, the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic, has said that the resumption of shipping depends on Washington accepting Tehran's conditions regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Fox News reported that the memorandum of understanding between the United States and the Islamic Republic technically expires on Monday, August 16, 60 days after it was signed, and so far little progress has been made towards reaching a new diplomatic solution on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. According to the report, as the memorandum of understanding nears its expiration, tensions in the region continue. A cargo ship was targeted in the Strait of Hormuz by an unidentified projectile on Saturday, and two Emirati oil tankers were attacked the day before. US President Donald Trump said on Friday that the United States has de facto control over the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, adding: "No ship passes through unless we want it to." He also said that he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz "United States territory."
The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization announced that three ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz within 72 hours and the regional threat level in this waterway has been assessed as "very high." According to the organization, two oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on August 13, and a cargo ship was attacked on August 14 as it entered the strait. The organization did not provide details about the cause of the attacks, how they occurred, or possible damage to the ships in the published information.
The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization said two oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on August 13 and a cargo ship was attacked as it entered the strait on August 14. The organization declared the regional threat level as “very high.”
Reuters reported that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been almost completely halted since Friday, August 13, after two Emirati ships were attacked and the US announced that it could continue its naval blockade of the Islamic Republic indefinitely. According to data from tracking company Kepler, only two ships passed through the waterway on Friday; a grain ship entered Iranian waters and an empty bulk carrier headed in the opposite direction. An empty tanker carrying liquefied gas products was also entering the Persian Gulf, and no crude oil cargo was seen passing.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising fuel prices would reduce global oil demand by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026. However, the agency expects demand to increase by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2027 as market conditions improve. According to the agency’s August report, the demand decline will gradually ease in the second half of 2026, and oil consumption will start to grow again in the final quarter of the year. The agency also raised its estimate of the supply deficit in the third quarter of the year to 1.8 million barrels per day, more than double the forecast last month. The International Energy Agency said that global visible oil inventories fell by 69 million barrels in July, and that a total of 410 million barrels have been drawn since the end of February. According to the organization, the rapid decline in reserves has increased the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although the market is likely to face a surplus again by the end of the year.
Chokepoint traffic rises, risks persist • • Maritime traffic increased through both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb on 11 August, but higher volumes have not translated into normalisation. Hormuz crossings rose to 14, with 11 using the Iranian Unilateral Scheme and none using the traditional TSS route. Bab el-Mandeb recorded 40 crossings, including dark, sanctioned and shadow fleet movements. A new confirmed vessel attack also lifted the cumulative total to 65. For shipping markets, the message remains mixed: trade is moving, but routing constraints, security incidents and diplomatic tensions continue to make both corridors active but fragile. • • Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited yesterday (August 11), with 14 transits recorded, most of them via the Iranian route.
Shipping data company Kepler reported that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to less than half of its previous daily average. The report said that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to six on August 10, a significant drop compared to the previous daily average of 11. Before the war, about 130 to 140 ships would normally pass through the strait daily. Sajideh Sharifi, a correspondent for Iran International, reports
Reuters reported that as hopes for a peace deal between the United States and the Islamic Republic dwindled, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined. On Monday, August 9, only six ships passed through the strait, compared to about 130 to 140 ships passing through it daily before the war.
Kepler: Danger remains high in Strait of Hormuz Maritime danger remains high. Maritime traffic is moving in different directions at two critical points. Transits through the Strait of Hormuz decreased to eight vessels on August 4, with most vessels leaving the Persian Gulf and their routes centered around Iran’s unilateral plan. Transits through Bab al-Mandab increased to 34 vessels, but four dark transits, activity by sanctioned vessels, and movements of the shadow fleet highlight ongoing concerns about transparency of routes and compliance with regulations.
@TasnimNews
Kepler, stating that maritime risks remain high, reported that ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz had decreased to eight on August 4, while traffic through Bab al-Mandab had increased to 34.
18:01/August 4
Operational Assessment: An average of one offending vessel is hit daily in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM escorts have been suspended and strikes on Iranian military infrastructure on the southern coast and islands have not affected Iran's ability to monitor and control the Strait.
Where does the news lean?
6YES86NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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