Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?July
ResolvedOutcome: No$26Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
31 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
GASLOG SHANGHAI, carrying Qatari LNG, was struck in the Strait of Hormuz on July 31, the 2nd hit on Qatari LNG cargo in a month. During the same window, 4 Saudi tankers struck in the Red Sea, but 22 Chinese-linked vessels crossed Bab el-Mandeb unharmed.
US-escorted ship grounded Monch Osint, a satellite tracking account, says a Qatari gas carrier has anchored and stopped in the southern passage of the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday morning, Saturday, two oil tankers were targeted in the southern passage of the Strait of Hormuz in Omani waters, one 11 nautical miles northeast of Lima and the other 21 miles northeast of Khasab. An informed source told Fars today, “The Strait of Hormuz remains closed” and vessels that pass through unsafe routes “will definitely have an accident.” Monch Osint says that the ship was under US escort and was targeted on Friday night, July 31.
@Farsna - Link
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is running near-empty. One inbound tanker in the latest 12-hour window, none completing an outbound transit. • • The inbound vessel, an LPG tanker in ballast, went dark for part of its run and is assessed to have used the northern corridor rather than the south. That routing is consistent with the IRGC's 22 July claim that the southern corridor has been mined. • • In the same window (18:00 UTC 25 Jul to 06:00 UTC 26 Jul), one oil/chemicals tanker is mid-transit outbound carrying roughly 280,800 bbl of gasoil, Bandar Mahshahr to Fujairah. • • Empty lanes and a dark northern-corridor run point to the same read: vessels are routing around the southern corridor, not moving through a normalized strait. • • Live tracker here:
CBS News reported, citing a shipping industry source, that no large international commercial vessels are currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The Joint Maritime Intelligence Center in Bahrain, which the United States also participates in, said that commercial ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in three weeks on Tuesday, July 20, as Tehran continued to attack ships. According to Lloyd's analysis, between July 22 and 28, only two ships, with their automatic identification systems turned off, passed through the Strait of Hormuz via the U.S.-backed southern route along the coast of Oman.
Maritime traffic remains under pressure • • #MarineTraffic data shows commercial shipping continuing through both of the Middle East's critical maritime chokepoints, although traffic patterns reflect growing operational caution. On 21 July, 9 verified vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz, compared with 29 crossings through Bab el Mandeb. Over 20 to 21 July, Hormuz recorded 22 crossings, with 16 using the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, while Bab el Mandeb handled 73 crossings. Vessel behaviour is also shifting, with four verified U turns near the Gulf of Aden following heightened security threats. Combined with 61 confirmed maritime incidents reported by the IMO, the data suggests that geopolitical risk is increasingly influencing routing decisions, even as commercial traffic continues.
Maritime traffic remains under pressure • • #MarineTraffic data shows commercial shipping continuing through both of the Middle East's critical maritime chokepoints, although traffic patterns reflect growing operational caution. On 21 July, 9 verified vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz, compared with 29 crossings through Bab el Mandeb. Over 20 to 21 July, Hormuz recorded 22 crossings, with 16 using the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, while Bab el Mandeb handled 73 crossings. Vessel behaviour is also shifting, with four verified U turns near the Gulf of Aden following heightened security threats. Combined with 61 confirmed maritime incidents reported by the IMO, the data suggests that geopolitical risk is increasingly influencing routing decisions, even as commercial traffic continues.
SINGAPORE, July 22 (Reuters) - Vessel crossings via the Strait of Hormuz dropped further on Tuesday, shipping data showed, as security concerns lingered amid ongoing attacks by the United States and Iran.
09:24/ July 20
A well-informed source in the IRGC Navy said: "Currently, there is no traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and any attempt to pass through this strait, especially by violating vessels, will be met with a response from the Iranian armed forces. As long as the hostile actions and evil deeds of the United States continue, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and no permits will be issued for the passage of vessels."
Polymarket traders project the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as Trump announces another “major” combat operation. • • 2% chance of reopening by July 31 — Polymarket
Iran is still hitting ships in Hormuz, now targeted, not random, even with a U.S. blockade layered on top of a fragile ceasefire. The strait is getting darker. • • Wednesday, July 22: VADM (Ret.) Robert (Bob) Sharp, former Director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and Windward's CMIO, joins Senior Analyst @Michellewb_ for a live intelligence briefing on the situation in the Strait. • • See what the multi-source data shows, what it signals, and what's next. • • Register:
Economy in Two Minutes | Brent crude surpasses $90 amid supply concerns Only 4 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group Gulf oil exports in July hit their highest level since February 2026
#AlArabiya_Business
Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz closed due to the escalating US military activity in the region. The measure was taken this Saturday, July 18, after two oil tankers exploded and caught fire south of the strait, after the vessels attempted to navigate through mined waters. The military institution stated that the ships proceeded through a mined passage and alerted mariners to the danger in the area.
Ships disappear suddenly and then reappear... What exactly is happening in the Strait of Hormuz? The US war on Iran has changed the rules of navigation, and ships are now turning off their tracking devices and crossing the strait in the dark. Six tankers passed through on July 12 without any signals, after Iran attacked seven ships in seven days near Oman. #AlArabiya_Business
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to eight transits on July 16, the lowest level in three weeks, with most of the traffic concentrated along the Iranian route and overall maritime activity continuing to decline.
Marine Traffic: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in three weeks on July 16 Only eight confirmed crossings were recorded; none used the Omani route
Hormuz traffic reaches three week low • • MarineTraffic data indicate confirmed crossings through the monitored Strait of Hormuz zone fell to eight on 16 July, down from 15 a day earlier and marking a three week low. Seven of the eight transits followed the Iranian route, with no crossings via the Omani route and no shadow fleet movements recorded. Traffic was evenly split between commercial and non commercial vessels, while half of all crossings were Iranian flagged. The latest data reflect a continued decline in vessel activity, reinforcing signs of a more selective operating environment across one of the world's busiest maritime chokepoints. • • Read more here:
8 tankers went dark in the Arabian Sea this week. The recent baseline is roughly 3. • • Windward’s Early Detection flagged the spike during July 10–17, and the timing isn’t subtle: • • → July 14: the U.S. reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports. • → July 13: Hormuz tanker transits hit a two-month low. • → July 7: two laden tankers struck on the approved outbound corridor, one had been AIS-dark for 19 days before it was hit. • → Since early May: a covert ship-to-ship network shifting tankers dark near Fujairah and Sohar. • • With U.S. forces boarding, redirecting, and disabling vessels, going dark is a direct evasion response. The signal to watch: if dark counts keep climbing past this week, or the gap from baseline widens, this stops being a reaction and becomes structural.
Is the Strait of Hormuz going back to war? • • The U.S. blockade is back in effect. Transits have collapsed. And every team that touches the Gulf is asking the same question: is this a pause, or the start of something worse? • • On Wednesday, July 22, two people who can read the data behind the escalation take that question live: • • → VADM (Ret.) Robert (Bob) Sharp Windward's Chief Maritime Intelligence Officer and former Director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency • • → @Michellewb_, Senior Maritime Intelligence Analyst • • They'll break down what's actually moving in the strait — transits, tanker positioning, dark activity — and the risk indicators that will decide what comes next. Live Q&A included. • • Wednesday, July 22 | 9 AM EDT / 2 PM BST • Reserve your seat:
According to Reuters, the Directorate General of Shipping of India issued an order on Wednesday evening, July 14, stating that no Indian seafarer should be sent to ships whose travel route includes passing through the Strait of Hormuz until further notice. Following the escalation of conflicts in the region, India has ordered ship owners, shipping management companies and seafarer supply companies to refrain from sending Indian citizens to the Strait of Hormuz until further notice. The order states: "In view of the escalating security situation in the Persian Gulf region, the Directorate General of Shipping considers it necessary to take additional precautionary measures to protect the interests of Indian seafarers serving on ships operating in the region."
Marine Traffic: No ships using Omani route through Strait of Hormuz The risk in the Strait of Hormuz has become more severe despite a slight increase in transits. Vessel activity in the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly on July 14, with 21 confirmed transits recorded. No ships are using the Omani route, while ship traffic continues to use the route approved by Iran, highlighting the decline in confidence in the alternative route. Renewed security threats, legal and geopolitical uncertainty have complicated the situation for seafarers.
Marine Traffic: No ships using Omani route through Strait of Hormuz The risk in the Strait of Hormuz has become more severe despite a slight increase in transits. Vessel activity in the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly on July 14, with 21 confirmed transits recorded. No ships are using the Omani route, while ship traffic continues to use the route approved by Iran, highlighting the decline in confidence in the alternative route. Renewed security threats, legal and geopolitical uncertainty have complicated the situation for seafarers.
Kepler Marine Tracking Company: No Traffic Through Omani Strait of Hormuz / Shipping Still Prefers Iran-Approved Routes Approved transits through the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly on July 14, with 21 monitored traffic recorded, mostly commercial traffic carrying crude oil, LPG, methanol and iron ore. However, the security outlook continued to deteriorate as three more attacks were confirmed off the coast of Oman, bringing the total number of reported incidents to 56 confirmed incidents and 17 fatalities among seafarers. The lack of traffic through the Omani route reflects a growing lack of confidence in the corridor, while shipping continues to prefer Iran-approved routes. Meanwhile, the United States is reportedly considering imposing a 20 percent tariff on transit cargo, bringing new legal and geopolitical uncertainty. The Strait remains passable, but the operational environment is becoming increasingly complex and unstable./ Selection
Strait of Hormuz risks deepen despite slight rise in crossings • • Vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly on 14 July, with 21 confirmed crossings recorded, according to #MarineTraffic data. Commercial traffic accounted for most movements, including vessels carrying crude oil, LPG, methanol and iron ore. • • The security outlook, however, deteriorated further after three additional attacks off Oman were verified, bringing the reported total to 56 confirmed incidents and 17 seafarer fatalities. No vessels used the Omani route, while traffic continued to favour Iranian-approved routing, highlighting declining confidence in the alternative corridor. The Strait remains passable, but renewed security threats and reports that the US may consider a 20% cargo transit toll are adding further legal and geopolitical uncertainty for operators.
No surprise here; we are seeing a slowdown in Hormuz traffic @Kpler. 1 -10 July, when post-MoU traffic was still clearing through the Strait, confirmed crossings across all commodity-carrying vessel classes fell from 296, or 30 per day, to 32 over 11 -13 July, or 11 per day. On 12 to 13 July, Kpler recorded only 12 confirmed crossings as of the evening of 13 July. #OOTT
Marine Traffic: Use of Iranian routes in the Strait of Hormuz has increased According to new data, ship activity through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased sharply between July 10 and 12, with the number of confirmed passages down by about 52 percent compared to the previous week. Use of Iranian routes has increased, while activity in the Oman corridors has decreased to minimal levels. The renewed tensions between the US and Iran and recent warnings have continued to negatively affect confidence and reinforce a cautious approach to commercial shipping in the region.
@TasnimNews
STRAIT OF HORMUZ TRAFFIC TURNS DEFENSIVE • • Confirmed crossings fell around 52% week on week between 10–12 July, according to MarineTraffic. • • Vessels increasingly favoured Iranian and Dark routes, while IMO and Omani corridor activity dropped to minimal levels. • • Despite no confirmed attacks since 27 June, US–Iran tensions and IRGC warnings continue to drive cautious routing.
Strait of Hormuz traffic turns defensive • • Vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz declined sharply over 10–12 July, with confirmed crossings down by around 52% week on week, according to #MarineTraffic data. • • Traffic also shifted back toward more defensive routing patterns. Use of the Iranian and Dark routes increased, while activity on the IMO and Omani corridors fell to minimal levels, indicating that operators continue to prioritise perceived security over more direct transit options. • • Although no new IMO-confirmed physical attacks have been reported since 27 June, renewed US-Iran tensions and recent IRGC warnings continue to weigh on confidence, reinforcing a cautious approach to commercial shipping through the region.
02:59/ July 11
The Strait of Hormuz was completely closed from all directions.
Strait of Hormuz crossings fall as operators remain cautious • • Confirmed vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell for a second consecutive day on 9 July, dropping to 22 crossings from 30 the previous day, according to #MarineTraffic data. Activity remained largely low-risk, with commercial movements only slightly exceeding non-commercial traffic. Operators continued to favour the Iranian route, while the Omani route recorded just one crossing, reinforcing the lasting impact of recent security incidents near Oman. No new physical attacks have been recorded since 7 July, but renewed US-Iran military escalation continues to weigh on confidence that diplomatic efforts will deliver near-term stability.
Strait of Hormuz traffic dropped sharply overnight. Just 6 vessels crossed between 18:00 UTC July 9 and 06:00 UTC July 10, down from a normalized 18-22 earlier this month. That's the third straight overnight drop, now near a quarter of early July levels. • • Outbound sailings have nearly stopped, just 1 vessel last night, versus 15-21 on July 5-7. Dark transits are also climbing, accounting for nearly 40% of all traffic, the highest in six days. • • Windward is watching the Strait in real time.
The Kepler maritime traffic monitoring platform revealed today that confirmed transits through the Strait of Hormuz decreased for the second consecutive day on July 9, reaching 22 transits down from 30 the previous day. According to the shipping data, traffic remained largely low-risk, with commercial shipping only slightly exceeding non-commercial traffic. Operators continued to favor the Iranian route, while the Omani route saw only one transit, confirming the ongoing impact of recent security incidents near Oman.
Where does the news lean?
1YES41NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.