Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?November
Open$13Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The Washington Post reported that the Islamic Republic’s increased attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted commercial shipping and energy transport through the route. According to the report, at least nine ships have been targeted in a week. The newspaper wrote that the volume of crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased and the transfer of gasoline and diesel through this route has stopped. The heightened concerns about shipping security in the region have occurred at the same time as oil prices have increased on global markets. The attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continue while the United States has expanded its naval operations to protect commercial ships and has continued to pressure the Islamic Republic’s oil exports. The Washington Post also wrote that the continued disruption of shipping traffic has increased pressure on US President Donald Trump ahead of the US midterm elections. Trump said Thursday that the United States will not resume military strikes against the Islamic Republic before the November 3rd election.
Donald Trump rejected Iran's offer to open the Strait of Hormuz and cease hostilities in the region for seven days, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed US officials. According to the newspaper, Trump privately expressed doubts with staffers that Iran would comply with his demands and stated that he believed the resumption of bombing was likely after the November congressional elections. Reuters was unable to confirm this information. Shortly before the WSJ publication, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that Tehran had submitted a peace plan to the US that calls for a seven-day countdown to opening the Strait of Hormuz and suspending hostilities in the region.
Where does the news lean?
1YES2NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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