Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
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Odds now
The market prices a 86% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES86¢
NO14¢
-86 ptsas of
What moved the odds?
23 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
YESReuters97%match87¢-1%
IMF Forecasts Assume Strait of Hormuz Reopening Resumes in March 2027 with Return to Broad Pre-War Conditions by October 2027
The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization announced that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still about 75 percent lower than before the war began.
The Strait of Hormuz is experiencing its lowest traffic in over two months... What's happening?
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at its lowest level in two months... and oil prices rise. Shipping data showed that the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in more than two months, after attacks on oil tankers passing through this vital waterway last week reached their highest level since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz drops to its lowest level in more than two months
Hormuz transit hits 2-month low Transportation data shows the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to its lowest level in more than 2 months. This comes after attacks on oil tankers transiting the vital waterway reached their highest level since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran last week. According to data published by Kepler, only 7 cargo ships transited the strait on Tuesday, the lowest number since July 23. It is worth noting that the price of Brent has currently reached $104 per barrel.
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Bloomberg also wrote that oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz are returning to pre-war levels, despite the Islamic Republic's continued attacks.
No ships in Hormuz Strait Satellite images released of the Strait of Hormuz show no ships in the passage. This is despite Trump claiming that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Last weekend, only 5 ships passed through the Strait, and no crossings were recorded for Sunday.
Live: Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic remains low
HORMUZ OIL FLOWS HIT SIX-MONTH HIGH • • Oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have reached their highest level in six months, as U.S. mine-clearing and naval protection efforts boost tanker traffic. • • CENTCOM says Gulf allies have moved more than 1 billion barrels of crude through the strait in recent months.
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic remains around ‘90% below pre-conflict levels’ as gas prices climb
Kazem Gharibabadi, the deputy foreign minister of the Islamic Republic, told the student news agency: “The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and if a ship passes through this route, it will be with the coordination and permission of the Islamic Republic.” He added that the Islamic Republic is in no hurry to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and will continue to take defensive measures and confront threats. Gharibabadi said that the armed forces have “full control” over movements in the Strait of Hormuz and do not confirm the statements made about ships passing without coordination. According to him, the Islamic Republic and Oman have reached an understanding on the arrangements for passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but this understanding will not automatically enter the implementation stage and its implementation requires the fulfillment of US commitments. Gharibabadi added: "The Islamic Republic has indicated its readiness to return to diplomacy through this understanding, but the United States has suspended its commitments, and if the United States takes the necessary measures, the Islamic Republic will also take its own countermeasures."
Six months after the Iran-Iraq war, the International Maritime Organization warned that the Strait of Hormuz crisis remains unresolved, with some 400 ships carrying nearly 6,000 sailors unable to safely leave the region. Arsenio Dominguez, the organization's secretary-general, dismissed reports of freedom of movement and called for cooperation from countries and the shipping industry to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the organization, 70 incidents and the deaths of 19 sailors have been confirmed as of Wednesday. Tracking data also indicates limited and slow ship traffic, and many shipping companies are still reluctant to return their large ships to the Persian Gulf.
The International Maritime Organization report, citing tracking data, indicates limited and slow ship traffic and says that very few ships are returning to the Persian Gulf to receive new cargoes because many shipping companies are reluctant to return their large ships through the strait after removing them from the Persian Gulf.
Ship Attack Amidst Hormuz Traffic Stagnation… Reopening Has a Long Way to Go
Six months after the start of the war, trade in the Strait of Hormuz has declined by 85%, and an Iranian closure in response to US-Israeli strikes is strangling a waterway that once handled a fifth of the world's oil and gas exports.
Six months since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz... Shipping traffic has declined by approximately 85%, from 95 to 15 ships daily, and thousands of sailors await safe passage through one of the world's most vital energy and trade arteries. #FromTheEvent
NOReuters91%match32¢-56%
Hormuz Shipping Traffic Shows No Uptick in US-Iran Geopolitical Stalemate, According to Data
Iranian officials say the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and will not reopen until Tehran accepts its terms. At the same time, shipping data shows that ship traffic through the waterway is nearing its lowest level in about three months. The Persian Gulf Waterway Authority announced on the social network X that the claims of American officials about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will not change the situation and that the reopening of the waterway is conditional on the Islamic Republic accepting its terms. This position was made in response to statements by US President Donald Trump, who said that the United States has “complete control” of the Strait of Hormuz. According to a CNBC analysis of data from Kepler, the five-day average of ship crossings through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased to about 13 ships per day; while before the conflict began, about 130 ships were passing through the waterway daily. At the same time, the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic has put forward conditions for the opening of the strait, including the end of the US naval blockade, the easing of sanctions, the withdrawal of US forces, and the payment of war reparations.
Energy-producing nations in the Persian Gulf are concluding that Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz will become the norm, indefinitely disrupting their oil and gas exports and global energy supplies. The problem is, they fear the alternative—a return to war—would be even worse.
Iran deputy foreign minister speaks of a new model or temporary route in the strait of Hormuz agreed with Oman lasting two to four months • "A significant part of this new route is located in Iranian territorial waters and part of it is in Omani territorial waters; that is, it is designed in such a way that commercial ships will pass through Iranian territorial waters both on the way in and on parts of the way out. • "In order to exercise effective sovereignty in the Strait of Hormuz, which is now truly a strategic concern for us, we do not necessarily need to declare that ships must pass entirely through Iranian territorial waters. • "Before the war, for six decades, all entry and exit was through Omani territorial waters. • Other issues apart from the route itself include "the discussion of the sovereignty of coastal states and ensuring their security, future arrangements, the establishment of a joint coordination center between Iran and Oman to direct maritime traffic, obtaining the necessary information from vessels that want to enter and exit through the Strait of Hormuz, from the Sea of Oman to the Persian Gulf and vice versa. All of these issues are foreseen in addition to this map, and we are on the verge of finalizing this understanding. • "This new model is not a continuation of the model that was implemented for 60 years, but rather takes into account the issues and conditions of the day, the security conditions surrounding Iran" • Strait will not be opened until progress US blockade of Iran ports, the situation in Lebanon, reimposed sanctions and the blocked funds of Iran. •
The Persian Gulf Waterway Management Authority announced that due to the continued "aggressive" actions of US military forces in the region, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not possible. The authority added: "As soon as stability and calm are established, all requests will be reviewed and permits will be issued in a timely manner."
Due to the aggressive actions of the United States, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not possible The Persian Gulf Waterway Management Authority, in response to repeated questions from applicants, would like to inform you again:
Due to the continued aggressive actions of the United States military forces in the region, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not possible. As soon as stability and calm are established, all requests will be reviewed and permits will be issued in a timely manner based on the order and schedule. @isna94
Where does the news lean?
55YES72NO12neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans YES at 56% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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