Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?October
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The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
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15 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Hassan Qashqavi, spokesman for the National Security Commission of the Parliament, told the political deputies of the law enforcement forces on Sunday, October 9: “It is impossible for the Strait of Hormuz to open until the conditions of the Islamic Republic are met.”
The spokesman for the National Security Commission of the Parliament added that the Islamic Republic’s management of the Strait of Hormuz is “more solid” than before. Qashqavi also said: “At least more than 70 percent of the news and analysis produced by the enemy during the war are unrealistic and false.”
Footage of a fire, presumably on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, is circulating on social media. The IRGC previously reported that the oil tanker struck a mine while traveling along a route not coordinated with Iran. The vessel was allegedly traveling with its navigation system disabled. On October 9, the IRGC announced a no-ship zone east of the Strait of Hormuz and required ships to coordinate their passage with Tehran.
The US Naval Institute (USNI) reports that 11 ships were targeted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz between October 1 and 9, according to data from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). [In reply to: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps releases footage of the oil tanker targeted by a sea mine.]
An unprecedented record of attacks on oil tankers was recorded in the Strait of Hormuz The Wall Street Journal report, citing field data, reports a significant increase in tensions and the highest number of weekly attacks on oil tankers in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. According to this report, between September 28 and October 4 (October 6 to 12), 10 oil tankers were targeted, which is a new record in maritime incidents in the region. Mizan on social networks @mizanplus
An unprecedented record of attacks on oil tankers was recorded in the Strait of Hormuz The Wall Street Journal report, citing field data, reports a significant increase in tensions and the highest number of weekly attacks on oil tankers in the strategic waterway of Hormuz. According to the report, between September 28 and October 4, 10 oil tankers were targeted, which is a new record in maritime incidents in the region.
@TasnimNews
10 tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz between September 28 and October 4, the highest number of attacks in a single week. [in reply to: Explosions rock the Strait of Hormuz: A crude oil tanker was targeted by a projectile while transiting the strait.]
Wall Street Journal reports: 10 tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz between September 28 and October 4, the highest number of attacks in a single week.
Oil tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz was targeted by an "unidentified projectile" The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization announced in an official report that an oil tanker carrying crude oil was hit by an unidentified projectile while passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The incident occurred on October 6 and, according to initial reports, there were no casualties.
@TasnimNews
The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported receiving a late notification from a reliable source that a crude oil tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile on October 6 while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Shipping data showed that the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in more than two months, after attacks on oil tankers in this vital waterway last week reached their highest point since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. According to data from the analytics firm Kpler, only seven ships passed through the strait on Tuesday, the lowest number since July 23. Kpler analysts Emanuele Pelostriano and Yui Toricata said in a note issued on October 6 that crude oil volumes transiting the strait fell by 27% from the wartime high of the previous week, reaching approximately 10.1 million barrels per day. They added that this level brings transit traffic back to the September average, but still only 74% of pre-war levels. The analysts explained that the bulk of the decline came from tanker-to-tanker transfers in the Gulf of Suez. Oman, where shipments are transferred between ships. In contrast, oil exports from the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea coast rose to 6.7 million barrels per day, more than double pre-war levels, offsetting some of the shortfall caused by reduced supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. This helped keep total crude oil exports from the Middle East close to pre-war levels, according to Kpler data. The number of ships transiting the strait rose slightly to 10 on Wednesday, but remained well below the daily average of over 20 on Sunday and Monday. The number of ships entering the strait also exceeded the number exiting it over the past two days. These figures do not include ships transiting the strait with their AID transponders switched off to avoid detection. Data from the group showed London stock exchanges reported that a total of eight ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, with four entering and four exiting, compared to 14 the previous day. The group stated that the eight vessels included five oil tankers and one liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier, which had loaded cargo at Ras Laffan in Qatar and was destined for Port Qasim in Pakistan. According to maritime security sources monitoring the incidents, attacks on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz last week reached their highest level since the start of the war with Iran, as Gulf oil-producing nations intensified their efforts to maintain the flow of their exports. In the latest incident, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on Wednesday that a tanker was struck by projectiles 51 nautical miles north of the Qatari city of Al Shamal, with reports of injuries. Before the outbreak of war with Iran on February 28, tankers used to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz sees approximately 125 large commercial vessels pass through it daily, including oil and gas tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships. Shipments transported through the strait represent about one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, making any disruption to shipping through it a direct impact on global energy markets.
British Maritime Operations Authority: An oil tanker leaving the Strait of Hormuz was targeted The British Maritime Operations Authority announced: An oil tanker leaving the Strait of Hormuz was targeted by an unidentified projectile on October 6.
The British Maritime Operations Authority announced on Tuesday afternoon that it had received a delayed report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz on October 4. According to a “verified source,” an oil tanker was attacked as it exited the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement did not specify the identity of the tanker, the cause of the attack, or the extent of possible damage, and the British Maritime Operations Authority said that authorities were investigating the incident. The British Maritime Operations Authority also advised passing ships to proceed with caution and report any suspicious activity to the agency.
The British Maritime Trade said it had received a report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz on October 4. The commander of an oil tanker said the vessel had been hit by an unidentified projectile and its engine room had caught fire. Crews are battling the blaze and there have been no reports of casualties.
The British Maritime Operations Authority announced that on Monday, October 4, an oil tanker entering the Strait of Hormuz 11 nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman, was recalled by the Revolutionary Guard Corps. According to the report, the Revolutionary Guard Corps warned the tanker to turn back or it would be targeted. The captain of the tanker said he had obeyed the order. The organization also reported three separate attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports, an liquefied gas tanker and a crude oil tanker were targeted on October 3. Also, according to the report, a crude oil tanker was targeted in the Strait of Hormuz on October 1. The British Maritime Operations Authority announced that authorities are investigating the incidents and urged ships to exercise caution when passing through the area.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Friday, October 25, that the Islamic Republic will not show any flexibility on its nuclear program even if Tehran accepts a US proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which includes measures such as lifting the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. According to a Reuters report, the senior Iranian official said that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until all of the Islamic Republic's conditions are met by the US.
Where does the news lean?
1YES25NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 88% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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