Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
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Market pricing makes No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 the favorite at 83% across 7 tracked outcomes, as of .
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The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization announced that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still about 75 percent lower than before the war began.
The Washington Post reported that the Islamic Republic’s increased attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted commercial shipping and energy transport through the route. According to the report, at least nine ships have been targeted in a week. The newspaper wrote that the volume of crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased and the transfer of gasoline and diesel through this route has stopped. The heightened concerns about shipping security in the region have occurred at the same time as oil prices have increased on global markets. The attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continue while the United States has expanded its naval operations to protect commercial ships and has continued to pressure the Islamic Republic’s oil exports. The Washington Post also wrote that the continued disruption of shipping traffic has increased pressure on US President Donald Trump ahead of the US midterm elections. Trump said Thursday that the United States will not resume military strikes against the Islamic Republic before the November 3rd election.
Trump on Truth Social: We are having productive talks with the Islamic Republic of Iran. I want to make it clear to everyone that even though Iran is in a very difficult situation, both economically and militarily, and even though the blockade remains in full force, with oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz in record quantities (22 million barrels last night alone, with not a single barrel coming from or going to Iran!), we will not attack Iran at any point before the midterm elections in the United States on November 3. Iran will not have nuclear weapons!
An unprecedented record of attacks on oil tankers was recorded in the Strait of Hormuz The Wall Street Journal report, citing field data, reports a significant increase in tensions and the highest number of weekly attacks on oil tankers in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. According to this report, between September 28 and October 4 (October 6 to 12), 10 oil tankers were targeted, which is a new record in maritime incidents in the region. Mizan on social networks @mizanplus
An unprecedented record of attacks on oil tankers was recorded in the Strait of Hormuz The Wall Street Journal report, citing field data, reports a significant increase in tensions and the highest number of weekly attacks on oil tankers in the strategic waterway of Hormuz. According to the report, between September 28 and October 4, 10 oil tankers were targeted, which is a new record in maritime incidents in the region.
@TasnimNews
10 tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz between September 28 and October 4, the highest number of attacks in a single week. [in reply to: Explosions rock the Strait of Hormuz: A crude oil tanker was targeted by a projectile while transiting the strait.]
Wall Street Journal reports: 10 tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz between September 28 and October 4, the highest number of attacks in a single week.
Oil tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz was targeted by an "unidentified projectile" The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization announced in an official report that an oil tanker carrying crude oil was hit by an unidentified projectile while passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The incident occurred on October 6 and, according to initial reports, there were no casualties. Mizan on social networks @mizanplus
Oil tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz was targeted by an "unidentified projectile" The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization announced in an official report that an oil tanker carrying crude oil was hit by an unidentified projectile while passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The incident occurred on October 6 and, according to initial reports, there were no casualties.
@TasnimNews
The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported receiving a late notification from a reliable source that a crude oil tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile on October 6 while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Reuters reported on Thursday, October 6, that the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in more than two months after a surge in attacks on oil tankers last week.
Just seven commercial ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the lowest number since August 1, Reuters reported, based on data and analysis from Kepler Analytics. Crude oil transits through the strait also fell 27 percent from their wartime highs last week to at least 10.1 million barrels per day, or 74 percent of pre-war levels.
The bulk of the decline was due to ship-to-ship transfers in the Sea of Oman, analysts at Kepler said.
However, exports from the coasts of the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea rose to 6.7 million barrels per day, more than double pre-war levels, helping to offset the drop in supply through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported.
The number of ships transiting the strait rose to 10 on Wednesday, but was still far below the more than 20 ships on Sunday and Monday, Kepler data showed.
@VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline
Shipping data showed that the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in more than two months, after attacks on oil tankers in this vital waterway last week reached their highest point since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. According to data from the analytics firm Kpler, only seven ships passed through the strait on Tuesday, the lowest number since July 23. Kpler analysts Emanuele Pelostriano and Yui Toricata said in a note issued on October 6 that crude oil volumes transiting the strait fell by 27% from the wartime high of the previous week, reaching approximately 10.1 million barrels per day. They added that this level brings transit traffic back to the September average, but still only 74% of pre-war levels. The analysts explained that the bulk of the decline came from tanker-to-tanker transfers in the Gulf of Suez. Oman, where shipments are transferred between ships. In contrast, oil exports from the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea coast rose to 6.7 million barrels per day, more than double pre-war levels, offsetting some of the shortfall caused by reduced supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. This helped keep total crude oil exports from the Middle East close to pre-war levels, according to Kpler data. The number of ships transiting the strait rose slightly to 10 on Wednesday, but remained well below the daily average of over 20 on Sunday and Monday. The number of ships entering the strait also exceeded the number exiting it over the past two days. These figures do not include ships transiting the strait with their AID transponders switched off to avoid detection. Data from the group showed London stock exchanges reported that a total of eight ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, with four entering and four exiting, compared to 14 the previous day. The group stated that the eight vessels included five oil tankers and one liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier, which had loaded cargo at Ras Laffan in Qatar and was destined for Port Qasim in Pakistan. According to maritime security sources monitoring the incidents, attacks on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz last week reached their highest level since the start of the war with Iran, as Gulf oil-producing nations intensified their efforts to maintain the flow of their exports. In the latest incident, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on Wednesday that a tanker was struck by projectiles 51 nautical miles north of the Qatari city of Al Shamal, with reports of injuries. Before the outbreak of war with Iran on February 28, tankers used to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz sees approximately 125 large commercial vessels pass through it daily, including oil and gas tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships. Shipments transported through the strait represent about one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, making any disruption to shipping through it a direct impact on global energy markets.
The Strait of Hormuz is experiencing its lowest traffic in over two months... What's happening?
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at its lowest level in two months... and oil prices rise. Shipping data showed that the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in more than two months, after attacks on oil tankers passing through this vital waterway last week reached their highest level since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz drops to its lowest level in more than two months
Hormuz transit hits 2-month low Transportation data shows the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to its lowest level in more than 2 months. This comes after attacks on oil tankers transiting the vital waterway reached their highest level since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran last week. According to data published by Kepler, only 7 cargo ships transited the strait on Tuesday, the lowest number since July 23. It is worth noting that the price of Brent has currently reached $104 per barrel.
@Farsna - Link
Reuters: Ship transit in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to a two-month low.
The British Maritime Operations Authority announced on Tuesday afternoon, October 4, that it had received a delayed report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz on October 4. According to a “verified source,” an oil tanker was attacked as it exited the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement did not mention the identity of the tanker, the perpetrator of the attack, or the extent of the possible damage, and the British Maritime Operations Authority said that authorities are investigating the incident.
@VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline
British Maritime Operations Authority: An oil tanker leaving the Strait of Hormuz was targeted The British Maritime Operations Authority announced: An oil tanker leaving the Strait of Hormuz was targeted by an unidentified projectile on October 6.
The British Maritime Operations Authority announced on Tuesday afternoon that it had received a delayed report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz on October 4. According to a “verified source,” an oil tanker was attacked as it exited the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement did not specify the identity of the tanker, the cause of the attack, or the extent of possible damage, and the British Maritime Operations Authority said that authorities were investigating the incident. The British Maritime Operations Authority also advised passing ships to proceed with caution and report any suspicious activity to the agency.
The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization announced that it had received a delayed report of an attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on October 4. According to the report, an oil tanker was hit while exiting the strait.
The British Maritime Trade said it had received a report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz on October 4. The commander of an oil tanker said the vessel had been hit by an unidentified projectile and its engine room had caught fire. Crews are battling the blaze and there have been no reports of casualties.
The British Maritime Operations Authority announced that on Monday, October 4, an oil tanker entering the Strait of Hormuz 11 nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman, was recalled by the Revolutionary Guard Corps. According to the report, the Revolutionary Guard Corps warned the tanker to turn back or it would be targeted. The captain of the tanker said he had obeyed the order. The organization also reported three separate attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports, an liquefied gas tanker and a crude oil tanker were targeted on October 3. Also, according to the report, a crude oil tanker was targeted in the Strait of Hormuz on October 1. The British Maritime Operations Authority announced that authorities are investigating the incidents and urged ships to exercise caution when passing through the area.
Global oil reserves have fallen to a "frighteningly low" level, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said. He noted that this creates a risk of deterioration in the market situation until the Strait of Hormuz opens to unimpeded shipping. "Until the Strait of Hormuz fully opens and market confidence is restored, the harsh reality is that pressure on both oil and petroleum products markets will intensify," Nasser said (quoted by Interfax). On October 2, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that the G7 countries will release up to 100 million barrels of oil and petroleum products from strategic reserves in the next four months to reduce prices of petroleum products, primarily diesel fuel. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
The British Maritime Trade said on October 1 that it had received reports of several incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. An liquefied natural gas tanker and a crude oil tanker were targeted by unidentified projectiles. Authorities are investigating the incident and ships are advised to proceed with caution.
The East-West Pipeline is the only Saudi oil export route that does not cross the Strait of Hormuz. It was shut down on September 11 after the first wave of attacks and only partially reopened on September 22. There have been no official details released about the cause of the attack or the extent of the damage.
The Joint Maritime Intelligence Center announced in its latest report that four attacks on oil tankers were reported in the Omani sector of the Strait of Hormuz from October 29 to 31. In its summary, the center described all four attacks as attacks with “unidentified projectiles.” The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization published the report on the social network X on Sunday, October 31. In one of the attacks, a fire caused the tanker’s crew to evacuate, and in another attack, a drone entered the smokestack of an oil tanker and, after falling into the engine room, caused a small fire and briefly cut off the ship’s power. Two other tankers were also targeted as they exited the strait, losing power and propulsion, respectively. The center added that attacks, attempted attacks and harassment by the Revolutionary Guards continue, including drone flights, targeted surveillance of commercial vessels and occasional radio calls. The report assessed the threat level in the Strait of Hormuz as still “severe” and considered a deliberate hostile act “highly likely” under current conditions. Commercial traffic through the strait also remains below its 2025 level.
Bloomberg also wrote that oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz are returning to pre-war levels, despite the Islamic Republic's continued attacks.
Oil Market in Product Supply Shortage In the week ending September 25, 2026, the oil market was simultaneously affected by geopolitical developments in West Asia, disruptions in oil transport routes, and an intensifying shortage of oil products; conditions that, along with increased oil exports by some producers, indicate the formation of a fragile balance in the global oil market. The oil market was between two opposing forces this week: on the one hand, signs of diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions in West Asia and an increased likelihood of a partial return to maritime trade flow exerted downward pressure on prices, and on the other hand, operational restrictions on oil and product transport routes and increased transportation and insurance costs supported prices. The Strait of Hormuz remained one of the important variables affecting the oil market. Ship tracking data showed that daily commercial vessel crossings fell to fewer than 10 on some weekdays, while the 10-day average was reported to be around 18. shana.ir/news/2969801 @Shananewsroom
The British Maritime Operations Center announced on Friday, October 1, that an oil tanker was targeted by an unidentified projectile while leaving the Strait of Hormuz, causing a small fire on the ship and a power outage. According to the tanker's captain, the fire has been contained and the ship has continued to move. There have been no reports of casualties or environmental consequences in the incident. The British Maritime Operations Center announced that the authorities are investigating the incident and urged passing ships to proceed with caution and report any suspicious activity.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.