Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Odds fell to 15% on Sep 26, 2026

OpenMove

Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 25.5¢ to 15¢ (-10.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from aa_arabic.

How did the odds move?

At match25.5¢
+5m25.5¢
+30m25.5¢
+1h15¢
1h move-10.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 26, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 25.5¢ → 15¢-10.5 ptsafter a signal from alarabytv

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Neutralaa_arabic97%match
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian: Iran emphasizes the importance of returning to the Islamabad Agreement and both parties adhering to the agreed-upon commitments. It also stresses the need to create the necessary conditions for progress in serious negotiations.
Neutralalarabytv97%match
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stressed the importance of returning to the "Islamabad Agreement" and Tehran and Washington's commitment to the agreed-upon pledges, emphasizing the need to create the necessary conditions for progress in serious negotiations.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 15% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES15¢
NO85¢

Vol$55K

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Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.