Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Odds jumped to 38% on Sep 22, 2026

OpenMove

Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 28¢ to 38¢ (+10 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from alarabiya.

How did the odds move?

At match28¢
+5m28.5¢
+30m29¢
+1h38¢
1h move+10 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 22, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 28.5¢ → 39.5¢+11 ptsafter a signal from alhadath

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Neutralalarabiya97%match
A US official told CNN that Trump assured his advisors that a meeting with the Iranians could happen if circumstances allowed. The official's remarks coincide with the arrival in New York of the Iranian delegation, headed by Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, to participate in the United Nations meetings.
Neutralalhadath97%match
A US official told CNN that Trump assured his advisors that a meeting with the Iranians could happen if circumstances allowed. The official's remarks coincide with the arrival in New York of the Iranian delegation, headed by Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, to participate in the United Nations meetings.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 28% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES28¢
NO72¢

Vol$50K

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Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.