French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?Marine Le Pen
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$10Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
50 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Live: Nearly 60% of French people disapprove of Marine Le Pen's decision to run for president
BFMTV POLL
2027 Presidential Election: Nearly 60% of French people disapprove of Marine Le Pen's decision to run
Despite her conviction, Marine Le Pen announces her candidacy for the French presidential elections. Report by: Dalal Muawad
Without an electronic bracelet... Marine Le Pen defies the judges and officially announces her candidacy to govern France in 2027 after her ban was reduced.
Without an electronic bracelet... Marine Le Pen defies the judges and officially announces her candidacy to govern France in 2027 after her ban was reduced.
"Tonight I declare: I am a presidential candidate" On July 7, Marine Le Pen announced live on TF1 that she is running for president in 2027, despite the appeal court's guilty verdict. She also confirmed that if she wins, Jordan Bardella will become prime minister. A new political plot that the Fifth Republic has never seen before. For the first time, the front-runner in a presidential campaign is entering it after already being convicted by a criminal court and awaiting the decision of the cassation court. Kommersant's correspondent in France, Alexei Tarkhanov, reports. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram [in reply to: Marine Le Pen returns to the race for the Elysee Palace The Paris Court of Appeal has allowed her to participate in the presidential elections. This decision effectively determined the configuration of the 2027 presidential campaign in France. The court, which had promised not to interfere in politics, decided two political issues at once: the French elections and the situation within the National Rally. Kommersant's correspondent in France, Alexei Tarkhanov, reports the details. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram]
LIVE
2027 Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen says "no," she is not "playing for time"
Hours after being convicted of embezzling European Parliament funds, far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen announced her intention to run for president of France in 2027.
LIVE
2027 Presidential Election: Laure Lavalette, spokesperson for the National Rally, speaks of "great relief" after Marine Le Pen's candidacy
LIVE - 2027 Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen launches her campaign with Jordan Bardella in Sarthe this Wednesday
LIVE 2027 Presidential Election: Now a candidate, Marine Le Pen makes her first campaign trip with Jordan Bardella after his appeal conviction
Marine Le Pen announced that she will run for president of France in 2027 The leader of the French "National Union" said that she would file a cassation appeal against the court's decision and conduct a presidential campaign without an electronic bracelet. According to Le Pen, the appeal to the Court of Cassation suspends the execution of her sentence. So, tonight I am a candidate in the presidential election, — the politician announced on French television. Le Pen also assured that she no longer sees any scenario in which she would not be able to participate in the 2027 elections.
Live: Marine Le Pen officially launches her presidential campaign
Frenchwoman Marine Le Pen announces her presidential candidacy for 2027 Far-right politician Marine Le Pen announced her candidacy for the 2027 French presidential elections after an appeals court reduced her disqualification from 60 to 45 months, allowing her to run despite her conviction for misusing European Parliament funds.
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen has announced her plans to run in next year's presidential election. However, her comeback faces significant legal hurdles due to her previous conviction for misappropriating funds from the European Parliament.
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen to appeal over financial corruption ruling; also declares presidential bid
Marine Le Pen, former leader of France's far-right party, was found guilty on appeal, but the suspension of her eligibility to run for office was shortened. She has announced she will run in next year's presidential election.
French far-right figure Marine Le Pen, despite being found guilty again, has had her sentence reduced, making her eligible to run for president. She announced her candidacy on a television program.
French far-right defendant Marine Le Pen announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election after conviction
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen says she will run for president in 2027 – video
Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader of France, announced her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election.
YESNews99%match98¢+2%
Marine Le Pen, former leader of France's National Rally, has announced her candidacy for president following a ruling that restores her eligibility to run for office.
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen to run for president in 2027; leading in approval ratings, appeals in finance fraud trial
Behind the scenes of Marine Le Pen's decision, officially a candidate for the 2027 presidential election
French far-right politician Marine Le Pen announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election after conviction.
Live: Marine Le Pen confirms she intends to run in 2027 presidential election, appeal parts of today's verdict - what we know so far
2027 Presidential Election: Eric Ciotti, Eric Zemmour... The first reactions to Marine Le Pen's candidacy announcement
Marine Le Pen has announced that she will run in the 2027 French presidential election [in reply to: A Paris court sentenced Marine Le Pen to three years in prison in a case involving the misuse of European Parliament funds]
The informal leader of the French right-wing populist "National Union" Marine Le Pen has announced her intention to run for president for the fourth time. She announced this decision after the Paris appeals court ordered her to wear an electronic bracelet, confirming her conviction for misuse of public funds. Le Pen plans to participate in the 2027 presidential election after filing an appeal with the French Supreme Court. According to her, this step will allow her to postpone the execution of the sentence and allow her to campaign without the restrictions associated with the electronic bracelet subscribe
★Former leader of France's far-right party, Marine Le Pen, announces presidential candidacy.
Marine Le Pen announced: I will run in the presidential election
2027 Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen assures she will be a candidate and will campaign "without an electronic bracelet"
Marine Le Pen says she will run for president in 2027 and take appeal against conviction to France's top court
Marine Le Pen to run for French presidency and appeal conviction in top court
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen says she will run for president
Live: Marine Le Pen "starts" her presidential campaign "tonight"
BREAKING NEWS
"I will not change my mind": Convicted on appeal but still eligible, Marine Le Pen confirms her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election
"I will not change my mind": Convicted on appeal but eligible, Marine Le Pen confirms she will be a candidate in the 2027 presidential election
BREAKING NEWS Marine Le Pen announces she will be a presidential candidate and "will not change her mind"
2027 Presidential Election Marine Le Pen announces her candidacy and will campaign "without an electronic tag"
Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right in France: I will run for president in 2027 without an electronic bracelet.
BREAKING NEWS Marine Le Pen announces she will be a presidential candidate and "will not change her mind"
France | Marine Le Pen announces that she will be a candidate in the presidential election and that she will campaign while wearing an electronic bracelet.
YESAPws99%match83¢+20%
PARIS (AP) — Marine Le Pen says she'll run for French presidency next year despite court-ordered electronic monitor for embezzlement
BREAKING NEWS
Marine Le Pen announces she will be a presidential candidate and "will not change her mind"
Assaf Rosenzweig
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen: I will appeal the court ruling, I will run in the presidential election without an electronic handcuff
Live: Marine Le Pen announces she will be a presidential candidate and will not change her mind
Court clears French far-right leader Marine Le Pen to run for president
Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally and top poll candidate for the next French presidential election, receives a reduced sentence, making her eligible to run for president.
Marine Le Pen is returning to the race for the Elysee Palace. The Paris Court of Appeal has allowed her to run in the presidential election. This decision has effectively determined the configuration of the 2027 presidential campaign in France. The court, which promised not to interfere in politics, decided two political issues at once: the French elections and the situation within the National Rally. Kommersant's correspondent in France, Alexei Tarkhanov, reports the details. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram [in reply to: The Paris Court of Appeal has upheld Marine Le Pen's right to run for president of France. Last spring, a court of first instance found her guilty of creating a system that allowed European funds to pay for the services of employees who actually worked for the party in France. Marine Le Pen received a sentence of five years' disqualification from running for office, four years' imprisonment (two of which were suspended, and the remainder could be served with an electronic bracelet), and a fine of €100,000. Subscribe to Kommersant in MAX | in Telegram]
Where does the news lean?
93YES12NO42neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.
Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
gamma-backfill
Related markets
See all outcomes for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.