French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?François Hollande
Open$1Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 37% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES37¢
NO63¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
François Hollande rules out any participation in the Socialist primary: "His choice is respectable," declares Jérôme Guedj, MP (Socialists and affiliated members)
Live: #PRESIDENTIAL François Hollande, in a manifesto and an interview with Le Point, proposes setting the legal retirement age at 63 and then gradually increasing the contribution period, reversing the trend...
Where does the news lean?
1YES1NO20neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 72% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.
Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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See all outcomes for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.