French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?Bernard Cazeneuve
Open$847as of
Odds now
The market prices a 74% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES74¢
NO26¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Présidentielle 2027 : «Mon objectif est de devenir président», annonce Bernard Cazeneuve
BFMTV DOCUMENT. Presidential election: Bernard Cazeneuve's letter to the French people for 2027
Presidential election 2027: Bernard Cazeneuve outlines a candidacy without going through the primary process
Presidential election 2027: Bernard Cazeneuve "announces his candidacy" in a letter to the French
“It is through a contract that binds me to the French people that I am presenting my candidacy”: Bernard Cazeneuve unveils his letter for 2027
Where does the news lean?
7YES0NO9neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 66% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.
Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Related markets
See all outcomes for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.