Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?JD Vance
ResolvedOutcome: No$277Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance: — The Iranians, while technical talks with the United States for peace continue, declare: No, no, there are no peace talks underway. — This is both interesting and disturbing. These are Iranian negotiating tactics and rhetoric that I cannot fully comprehend.
US Vice President J.D. Vance: The technical talks with Iran are based on the negotiations we have conducted previously. President Trump wants the negotiating track with Iran to continue with verifiable commitments. We must verify the dismantling of Iran's nuclear program through continuous inspections. President Trump has asked us to use the Memorandum of Understanding to restore the global economy's supply of oil and then see how things develop. We have two options: either pursue a long-term agreement with Iran, contingent on a change in its behavior, or consolidate the gains we have made. There is still a degree of uncertainty, and no one can be certain of what the Iranians will do.
Tehran insists there will be no negotiations with Washington before the memorandum of understanding is implemented... and US Vice President JD Vance threatens a return to "the bomb dialogue"
Esmail Baghaei, spokesman for the Islamic Republic's Foreign Ministry, told Iranian state broadcaster IRIB that there are no plans to hold talks with the United States in the next few days.
At the same time, J.D. Vance said on a television program: "I find it interesting and disturbing that the Iranians are simultaneously denying any peace talks, while technical talks between Washington and Tehran about a peace agreement are underway." Nilofar Mansouri, a correspondent for Iran International, reports
Vance: Trump asked us to use the memorandum of understanding with Iran to resupply the global economy with oil, and then we'll see how things develop.
Vance on Iran: President Trump is ready to drop bombs again
Vance on Iran: The president is ready to drop bombs again.
FWD from SNN International: Vance's claim: The Lebanon-Israeli morning agreement and the Iran-US memorandum of understanding both emphasize respect for Lebanon's territorial integrity! US Vice President: If you put the Lebanon-Israeli peace agreement together with the memorandum of understanding signed between the United States and Iran, what both of these documents essentially say is that Lebanon's territorial integrity will be respected. So there have definitely been a lot of changes. The question is whether these changes will be sustainable and lasting or not. Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snninternational
FWD from SNN International: Vance's claim: The Lebanon-Israeli morning agreement and the Iran-US memorandum of understanding both emphasize respect for Lebanon's territorial integrity! US Vice President: If you put the Lebanon-Israeli peace agreement together with the memorandum of understanding signed between the United States and Iran, what both of these documents essentially say is that Lebanon's territorial integrity will be respected. So there have definitely been a lot of changes. The question is whether these changes will be sustainable and lasting or not. Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snninternational
Axios: According to several American sources, Vance, along with Steve Whitaker and Jared Kushner, led negotiations on the deal with Tehran and believed Trump should approve it to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and stabilize the economy before the midterm elections.
Barak Ravid: Trump's "Swiss Army" tools on Iran: Vance and Rubio
Where does the news lean?
15YES15NO39neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location.
Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event.
If a qualifying signing ceremony occurs and the listed individual does not attend the event, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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