Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani RiverOctober 31
Open$10Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The Lebanese newspaper "Nida' al-Watan", affiliated with Hezbollah's opponents, reports that Lebanon received a message through the Americans that the situation on the Ali a-Tahr Ridge and the surrounding area will remain as it is and that the IDF will continue to maintain its military positions and deployment. The Lebanese newspaper noted that the possibility of Israel handing over the Ali a-Tahr Ridge to the Lebanese army or continuing to control it will be discussed in the eighth round of negotiations between Lebanon and Israel this coming October.
Lebanon-Israel negotiations postponed until October... Seven rounds have failed to resolve withdrawal, reconstruction, and the return of displaced persons. #AlArabyToday @SihamBaba5 @edmondsassine
The next round of Israeli-Lebanese negotiations has been postponed until October. Aoun reaffirms Beirut's constants: withdrawal, return of prisoners and displaced persons, and reconstruction.
The next round of Israeli-Lebanese negotiations has been postponed until October. Aoun reaffirms Beirut's constants: withdrawal, return of prisoners and displaced persons, and reconstruction.
Where does the news lean?
0YES5NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
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See all outcomes for Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.