Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani RiverAugust 31
Open$107Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Sky News Arabi, citing Lebanese military sources, announced that no new test zones will be established in southern Lebanon at this time, and that Israeli forces will not withdraw. After the Lebanese Army Commander met with Joseph Clearfield, a senior American general, it was agreed that coordination would continue under the current circumstances.
The White House disapproves of a possible permanent Israeli military presence in Lebanon, Axios reports, citing a US State Department official. On June 26, Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement under which the IDF will begin withdrawing troops from Lebanese territory. As part of the pilot program, the Lebanese army will occupy two zones on either side of the Litani River. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz previously stated that the country would not withdraw from southern Lebanon, even if the US demanded it. It has been repeatedly emphasized that the IDF's primary goal is to destroy Hezbollah, whose members are primarily located in southern Lebanon. The US administration opposed this decision. "A permanent military presence in southern Lebanon is incompatible with the commitments outlined in the agreement or with the long-term peace and security of both states," Axios journalist Barak Ravid quotes a US State Department official. More IZ RU news in MAX
Lebanese media: The next round is expected to take place on September 1, and that until then there will be no further Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon.
Live: Lebanon-Israel talks will likely not lead to further Israeli withdrawals
Two weeks after the initial agreement between Lebanon and Israel, brokered by the United States, the process of gradually withdrawing Israeli forces from southern Lebanon in exchange for Hezbollah's disarmament has slowly begun. The first phase of the plan was implemented in the village of West Zoutar after weeks of negotiations and several days of military operations, but Hezbollah continues to refuse to hand over its weapons. Iran International correspondent May Farhat reports.
Political sources told Al-Jadeed: There are no indications of a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, as the Israeli army will remain inside the Green Line, while the Rome negotiations proceed cautiously and Israel continues its military operations on the ground.
Where does the news lean?
2YES7NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
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