Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani RiverDecember 31
Open$325Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 12% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES12¢
NO89¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The Israeli newspaper Maariv reported that Israel does not intend to withdraw from the Ali Taher Heights area in southern Lebanon, despite American pressure to continue the withdrawal. This stance contradicts a Washington-sponsored negotiation process aimed at completing the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory.
Where does the news lean?
8YES6NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 80% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
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See all outcomes for Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.