French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?Gérald Darmanin

OpenVol$999Deadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES3¢
NO97¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOfranceinfo.fr95%match97¢
Live: #POLITICS During his political comeback in Tourcoing (Nord), Gérald Darmanin justified his support for Édouard Philippe in the presidential election by stating that he was "the only person who can win," but also...
NOFrench Media98%match97¢
Avoiding "multiplying candidacies": why Gérald Darmanin decided to support Édouard Philippe for the 2027 presidential election
NObfmtv.com98%match97¢
Avoiding "multiplying candidacies": why Gérald Darmanin decided to support Édouard Philippe for the 2027 presidential election
NOnikkei.com95%match97¢
French Presidential Election: Justice Minister Darmanin Declines to Run, Supports Former Prime Minister Philippe
NOdbws.io93%match97¢
French presidential candidate Philippe wins support of minister Darmanin
NOFrench Media98%match97¢
Présidentielle 2027: Gérald Darmanin a annoncé apporter son soutien à Édouard Philippe
NOFrench Media97%match97¢
"I've decided not to add to the division": Gérald Darmanin announces he will "not run in the presidential election" and offers his support to Édouard Philippe.
NObfmtv.com97%match97¢
"I have decided not to add to the division": Gérald Darmanin announces "that he will not be running in the presidential election" and offers his support to Édouard Philippe
Presidential election: Gérald Darmanin will not be a candidate and is supporting Edouard Philippe
NOleparisien.fr98%match89¢+9%
Presidential election 2027: Gérald Darmanin officially endorses Édouard Philippe
NOlefigaro.fr98%match89¢+9%
2027 Presidential Elections: Gérald Darmanin lends his support to Édouard Philippe

Where does the news lean?

0YES19NO5neutraltrailing 24h

Signal flow leans NO at 81% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.

What would make this resolve YES?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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