Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of VictoryHong 25–30%
ResolvedOutcome: No$44Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
44 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Why Polls Got Wisconsin Governor’s Race Wrong—After Socialist Francesca Hong Loses. • Kalshi betting odds gave Hong more than a 95% chance of winning on Tuesday.
Hasan Piker's "Touch Of Death"? Far-Left Francesca Hong Loses Wisconsin's Dem Primary For Governor
Live: A super PAC tied to Republicans spent millions on outside ads boosting the campaign of Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist state representative and chef whom both parties saw as easier for the G.O.P. nominee to defeat in November. That effort failed, as the moderate David Crowley took the Democratic nomination.
Primary night delivers a split verdict for Democrats and sets up another Republican showdown in South Carolina. • • Moderate David Crowley narrowly beats democratic socialist Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary, while progressive Peggy Flanagan takes Minnesota's Democratic Senate primary after securing an endorsement from Sen. Bernie Sanders. • • In South Carolina, neither Sen. Darline Graham nor Rep. Ralph Norman gets the majority needed to finish the Republican Senate contest, sending the two into an Aug. 25 runoff. • • @madeleinerivera has more on the races and the message voters are sending.
Moderate Crowley narrowly beats democratic socialist Hong in Wisconsin
David Crowley narrowly defeats democratic socialist Francesca Hong in Wisconsin governor primary • • Crowley and Gov. Tony Evers had mounted a last-ditch effort to paint Hong as too extreme and, therefore, unelectable in a battleground state • • via @politico
Live: David Crowley defeats democratic socialist Francesca Hong in Wisconsin governor primary
DDHQ Race Update (est. 99% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 313,348 (39.8%) • Francesca Hong (D): 310,037 (39.4%) • Kelda Roys (D): 58,964 (7.5%) • • Follow more results here: •
[UPDATE] Democratic socialist locked in unexpectedly tight Wisconsin primary race (first reported at 2026-08-11T13:00:08Z)
DDHQ Race Update (est. 96% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 303,738 (39.8%) • Francesca Hong (D): 301,621 (39.5%) • Kelda Roys (D): 57,955 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 94% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 297,712 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 294,650 (39.6%) • Kelda Roys (D): 56,649 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 93% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 294,317 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 291,128 (39.6%) • Kelda Roys (D): 56,045 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 93% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 293,908 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 290,896 (39.6%) • Kelda Roys (D): 55,983 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 92% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 289,186 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 285,652 (39.5%) • Kelda Roys (D): 55,129 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 91% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 287,575 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 283,778 (39.5%) • Kelda Roys (D): 54,863 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 91% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 287,034 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 283,357 (39.5%) • Kelda Roys (D): 54,812 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
Live: With a fluctuating and tiny margin separating David Crowley and Francesca Hong in the Democratic primary for governor in Wisconsin, the state’s somewhat strict rules governing recounts could come into play. Changes passed by a Republican-controlled legislature and signed into law by then-Gov. Scott Walker in 2017 set the following rules: A recount can be requested by a losing candidate only if the margin is 1 percentage point or less. If the margin is 0.25 of a percentage point or less, the state will pay for the recount. If the margin is greater, the campaign requesting the recount foots the bill.
DDHQ Race Update (est. 90% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 285,044 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 281,818 (39.6%) • Kelda Roys (D): 54,356 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 90% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 283,826 (40.1%) • Francesca Hong (D): 279,544 (39.5%) • Kelda Roys (D): 53,823 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 89% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 281,882 (40.1%) • Francesca Hong (D): 278,289 (39.6%) • Kelda Roys (D): 53,487 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 88% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 276,721 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 274,657 (39.7%) • Kelda Roys (D): 52,878 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 87% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 274,737 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 273,132 (39.7%) • Kelda Roys (D): 52,433 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 86% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 270,339 (39.9%) • Francesca Hong (D): 269,571 (39.8%) • Kelda Roys (D): 51,773 (7.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 85% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 267,234 (39.9%) • Francesca Hong (D): 266,834 (39.9%) • Kelda Roys (D): 51,141 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 83% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 263,251 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 261,730 (39.8%) • Kelda Roys (D): 50,119 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 82% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 260,366 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 259,133 (39.8%) • Kelda Roys (D): 49,462 (7.6%) • • Hong gained 596 votes in a Milwaukee drop. • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 80% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 254,072 (40.2%) • Francesca Hong (D): 252,681 (40.0%) • • Only a handful of counties remain with no reported votes. • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 79% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 251,492 (40.2%) • Francesca Hong (D): 250,465 (40.0%) • Kelda Roys (D): 47,625 (7.6%) • • The race remains extremely close. • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 78% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 247,609 (40.2%) • Francesca Hong (D): 246,577 (40.1%) • Kelda Roys (D): 46,859 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 75% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 240,360 (40.4%) • Francesca Hong (D): 237,744 (40.0%) • Kelda Roys (D): 45,373 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 74% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 234,705 (40.5%) • Francesca Hong (D): 231,774 (40.0%) • Kelda Roys (D): 44,285 (7.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 72% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 227,655 (40.6%) • Francesca Hong (D): 224,865 (40.1%) • Kelda Roys (D): 43,067 (7.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 67% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 213,945 (40.5%) • Francesca Hong (D): 212,972 (40.3%) • Kelda Roys (D): 40,700 (7.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 65% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 206,474 (40.7%) • Francesca Hong (D): 204,067 (40.2%) • Kelda Roys (D): 38,818 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
Live: A small crowd at David Crowley's party erupts in cheers as screens show the Milwaukee County executive holding a small lead over Francesca Hong, who was heavily favored in Wisconsin's Democratic primary for governor.
DDHQ Race Update (est. 63% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 199,614 (40.7%) • Francesca Hong (D): 197,668 (40.3%) • Kelda Roys (D): 37,561 (7.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 59% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 190,070 (41.1%) • Francesca Hong (D): 185,209 (40.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
Live: Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor too close to call, NBC News projects
DDHQ Race Update (est. 55% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 177,940 (41.2%) • Francesca Hong (D): 172,617 (40.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 52% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 167,312 (41.2%) • Francesca Hong (D): 161,490 (39.8%) • Kelda Roys (D): 31,304 (7.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 47% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 151,609 (41.5%) • Francesca Hong (D): 144,371 (39.6%) • Kelda Roys (D): 27,394 (7.5%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 43% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 139,998 (41.6%) • Francesca Hong (D): 134,322 (39.9%) • Kelda Roys (D): 25,368 (7.5%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 40% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 130,549 (41.9%) • Francesca Hong (D): 123,404 (39.6%) • Kelda Roys (D): 22,833 (7.3%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 14% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 46,081 (41.4%) • Francesca Hong (D): 40,673 (36.5%) • Kelda Roys (D): 9,679 (8.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
Where does the news lean?
0YES63NO12neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
How did this market resolve?
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
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