Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of VictoryHong <5%

ResolvedOutcome: NoVol$19KResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOforbes.com97%match100¢
Why Polls Got Wisconsin Governor’s Race Wrong—After Socialist Francesca Hong Loses. • Kalshi betting odds gave Hong more than a 95% chance of winning on Tuesday.
NOzerohedge97%match99¢+1%
Hasan Piker's "Touch Of Death"? Far-Left Francesca Hong Loses Wisconsin's Dem Primary For Governor
NOnypost.com97%match100¢
Live: Holiday-hating Francesca Hong loses to moderate David Crowley in Wisconsin gubernatorial primary
NOnypost.com97%match47¢+113%
Live: DSA-backed Francesca Hong trails moderate David Crowley in Wisconsin guv race
NOtheguardian.com97%match69¢+45%
Live: Results in the Wisconsin governor’s race are very close - David Crowley, the Milwaukee county executive, is narrowly leading Democratic socialist Francesca Hong

Where does the news lean?

0YES8NO33neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.

Past moves on this market

Material odds moves (8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.

How did this market resolve?

The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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