Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of VictoryHong 5–10%
ResolvedOutcome: No$32Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
28 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Why Polls Got Wisconsin Governor’s Race Wrong—After Socialist Francesca Hong Loses. • Kalshi betting odds gave Hong more than a 95% chance of winning on Tuesday.
Live: Democrats trying to make sense of David Crowley’s surprise victory pointed to a race that shifted dramatically in the last week. Francesca Hong seemed unpolished during national TV appearances; Gov. Tony Evers, still a popular figure in the party, was campaigning all over the state for Crowley; and many voters tuned in only in the race’s final days.
Hasan Piker's "Touch Of Death"? Far-Left Francesca Hong Loses Wisconsin's Dem Primary For Governor
Live: A super PAC tied to Republicans spent millions on outside ads boosting the campaign of Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist state representative and chef whom both parties saw as easier for the G.O.P. nominee to defeat in November. That effort failed, as the moderate David Crowley took the Democratic nomination.
Live: David Crowley defeats Francesca Hong to win Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor
David Crowley defeats Francesca Hong to win Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor
Live: Holiday-hating Francesca Hong loses to moderate David Crowley in Wisconsin gubernatorial primary
Live: David Crowley defeats democratic socialist Francesca Hong in Wisconsin governor primary
DDHQ Race Update (est. 93% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 293,908 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 290,896 (39.6%) • Kelda Roys (D): 55,983 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 92% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 289,186 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 285,652 (39.5%) • Kelda Roys (D): 55,129 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 91% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 287,575 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 283,778 (39.5%) • Kelda Roys (D): 54,863 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 91% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 287,034 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 283,357 (39.5%) • Kelda Roys (D): 54,812 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
Live: With a fluctuating and tiny margin separating David Crowley and Francesca Hong in the Democratic primary for governor in Wisconsin, the state’s somewhat strict rules governing recounts could come into play. Changes passed by a Republican-controlled legislature and signed into law by then-Gov. Scott Walker in 2017 set the following rules: A recount can be requested by a losing candidate only if the margin is 1 percentage point or less. If the margin is 0.25 of a percentage point or less, the state will pay for the recount. If the margin is greater, the campaign requesting the recount foots the bill.
DDHQ Race Update (est. 90% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 285,044 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 281,818 (39.6%) • Kelda Roys (D): 54,356 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 90% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 283,826 (40.1%) • Francesca Hong (D): 279,544 (39.5%) • Kelda Roys (D): 53,823 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 88% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 276,721 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 274,657 (39.7%) • Kelda Roys (D): 52,878 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 87% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 274,737 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 273,132 (39.7%) • Kelda Roys (D): 52,433 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 85% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 267,234 (39.9%) • Francesca Hong (D): 266,834 (39.9%) • Kelda Roys (D): 51,141 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 82% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 260,366 (40.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 259,133 (39.8%) • Kelda Roys (D): 49,462 (7.6%) • • Hong gained 596 votes in a Milwaukee drop. • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 79% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 251,492 (40.2%) • Francesca Hong (D): 250,465 (40.0%) • Kelda Roys (D): 47,625 (7.6%) • • The race remains extremely close. • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 78% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 247,609 (40.2%) • Francesca Hong (D): 246,577 (40.1%) • Kelda Roys (D): 46,859 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
Live: DSA-backed Francesca Hong trails moderate David Crowley in Wisconsin guv race
DDHQ Race Update (est. 74% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 234,705 (40.5%) • Francesca Hong (D): 231,774 (40.0%) • Kelda Roys (D): 44,285 (7.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 72% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 227,655 (40.6%) • Francesca Hong (D): 224,865 (40.1%) • Kelda Roys (D): 43,067 (7.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 67% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 213,945 (40.5%) • Francesca Hong (D): 212,972 (40.3%) • Kelda Roys (D): 40,700 (7.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
Live: Results in the Wisconsin governor’s race are very close - David Crowley, the Milwaukee county executive, is narrowly leading Democratic socialist Francesca Hong
DDHQ Race Update (est. 65% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 206,474 (40.7%) • Francesca Hong (D): 204,067 (40.2%) • Kelda Roys (D): 38,818 (7.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 52% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 167,312 (41.2%) • Francesca Hong (D): 161,490 (39.8%) • Kelda Roys (D): 31,304 (7.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
Where does the news lean?
0YES42NO40neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
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See all outcomes for Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.