Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections? Odds fell to 34% on Aug 17, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections? On , the market’s odds fell from 43¢ to 34¢ (-9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Channel 12 (N12). The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match43¢
+5m43.5¢
+30m46.5¢
+1h34¢
1h move-9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NeutralChannel 12 (N12)96%match
Dvir Jabra The Likud primaries | After counting about 15% of the ballots: Minister Eli Cohen leads. Followed by: Ministers Yariv Levin, Amir Ohana, Miri Regev and Yoav Kish. Further in the top ten: Coalition Chairman Ofir Katz, Ministers Miki Zohar and Amichai Shikli, Deputy Minister Almog Cohen and Minister Shlomo Kerei

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$31K

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Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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