Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections? Odds fell to 21% on Aug 18, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections? On , the market’s odds fell from 48¢ to 20.5¢ (-27.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Channel 12 (N12). The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match48¢
+5m46.5¢
+30m45.5¢
+1h20.5¢
1h move-27.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 18, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 38.5¢ → 20¢-18.5 ptsafter a signal from Channel 12 (N12)

What moved the odds?

YesChannel 12 (N12)96%match
Dvir Jabra Likud primaries | After 20% of ballots counted: Eli Cohen, Yariv Levin and Amir Ohana in the lead. Ministers Ze'ev Elkin, May Golan, Avi Dichter and Idit Silman in unrealistic positions and remain outside the Knesset

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$31K

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Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Likud Party Primary Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.