How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?9 (225 bps)
Open$4.3Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
'No Cuts'—Polymarket Bettors Dump Fed Rate Cut Hopes. • Polymarket bettors now give a 43% chance of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 as inflation fears mount. Here is what the prediction market data shows about the Fed's path.
*TRADERS ADD TO BETS ON ONE FED INTEREST-RATE CUT IN 2026
Traders add to bets on 1 Fed cut in 2026.
NOReuters98%match99¢+1%
Morgan Stanley Expects US Fed to Deliver Interest Rate Cuts in September and December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of Cuts in June and September
The Fed is very split on 2026 rates (but not as bad as December, when it was a 7-way split) • 7 expect no cut • 7 expect 1 cut • 2 expect 2 cuts • 2 expect 3 cuts • 1 expects 4 cuts (Miran)
Fed Summary • Fed projections show seven policymakers saw no rate cut in 2026, one sees rates higher in 2027. • • See end-2026 PCE inflation at 2.7% compared to 2.4% in December; core is seen at 2.7% compared to 2.5%. • • See 2.4% GDP growth in 2026 compared to 2.3% in December, see longer-run growth at 2.0% compared to 1.8% in December • • Fed maintains projections for one rate cut in 2026, one in 2027.
GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER 25 BPS RATE CUTS EACH IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER 2026 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN JUNE AND SEPTEMBER • (
US Fed Rate Cuts Shifted: Goldman Sachs Predicts 25bps Reductions in September and December 2026
YESFinancialJuice98%match1¢-100%
Fed's Goolsbee: I am one of the more optimistic people on the Fed about rate cuts this year
NOFirst Squawk98%match99¢+1%
FED’S GOOLSBEE: IF WE'RE AT 2% INFLATION, CAN HAVE SEVERAL MORE CUTS
NOBloomberg98%match99¢+1%
Short-term interest-rate traders are coalescing around a bet that would pay off if the Fed cuts interest rates just two or three times this year
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match99¢+1%
DOLLAR COULD DROP 10% IF FED CUTS MORE THAN EXPECTED State Street strategist Lee Ferridge warns the dollar may fall 10% in 2026 if the Fed cuts rates more aggressively than markets anticipate under a new chair. Traders expect two cuts by year-end, but a third is possible amid…
NOFinancialJuice99%match99¢+1%
Fed's Daly: I am leaning toward more rate cuts in 2026, and it's hard to say if that's one cut or two.
NOFirst Squawk99%match99¢+1%
CITIGROUP EXPECTS FED TO DELIVER 25 BPS RATE CUTS IN MARCH, JULY AND SEPT EACH VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN JAN, MARCH AND SEPT THIS YEAR
NOFinancialJuice99%match99¢+1%
Citigroup expects the Fed to deliver 25 bps rate cuts in March, July, and September each, vs prior forecast of cuts in January, March, and September this year.
NO*Walter Bloomberg99%match99¢+1%
CITIGROUP EXPECTS FED TO DELIVER 25 BPS RATE CUTS IN MARCH, JULY AND SEPTEMBER EACH VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN JANUARY, MARCH AND SEPTEMBER THIS YEAR
NOunusual_whales99%match99¢+1%
Fed to deliver modest rate cuts in 2026, per BlackRock.
NOFinancialJuice99%match98¢+2%
Fed's Goolsbee: I'm projecting more rate cuts than the median for 2026.
NOFirst Squawk98%match98¢+2%
GOOLSBEE: WAITING UNTIL Q1 FOR RATE CUTS WOULD ALLOW FED TO BE ASSURED INFLATION IS COMING DOWN
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match97¢+3%
MARKETS FEAR THE GUIDANCE, NOT THE RATE CUT Kalshi odds show a 97% chance of a 25 bps cut today, but the real risk is the Fed’s 2026 outlook. September projections signaled only one cut next year and a 3.4% year-end rate. Analysts expect guidance to turn neutral to hawkish as…
Where does the news lean?
6YES36NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
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