How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?12+ (300+ bps)
Open$3.8Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOReuters99%match100¢
Goldman Sachs Expects US Fed to Deliver Two 25 Bp Rate Cuts Each in December 2026 and March 2027 vs Prior Forecast of Cuts in September and December This Year
*TRADERS ADD TO BETS ON ONE FED INTEREST-RATE CUT IN 2026
NOunusual_whales98%match98¢+2%
Fed Governor Stephen Miran has said the central bank should cut interest rates by more than one percentage point in 2026. Do you agree?
NOFirst Squawk98%match98¢+2%
FED’S GOOLSBEE: IF WE'RE AT 2% INFLATION, CAN HAVE SEVERAL MORE CUTS
NOFinancialJuice98%match98¢+2%
Fed's Goolsbee: If we're at 2% inflation, we can have several more cuts.
NOFinancialJuice98%match98¢+2%
Citi sees Fed rate cuts beginning in May vs March previously.
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match98¢+2%
CITI SEES FED RATE CUTS BEGINNING IN MAY VS MARCH PREVIOUSLY
NOFinancialJuice98%match98¢+2%
Fed's Schmid: Additional Fed rate cuts might permit higher inflation to continue for a longer time. Current inflation rate indicates demand remains strong and surpasses improvements in supply.
NOFirst Squawk98%match98¢+2%
SCHMID: FURTHER FED RATE CUTS COULD ALLOW HIGHER INFLATION TO PERSIST FOR LONGER
NOBloomberg98%match98¢+2%
Short-term interest-rate traders are coalescing around a bet that would pay off if the Fed cuts interest rates just two or three times this year
NOFirst Squawk98%match97¢+3%
FED’S LOGAN: LAST YEAR’S RATE CUTS PROVIDED INSURANCE AGAINST LABOR MARKET COOLING; ADDITIONAL RATE MOVES DEPEND ON FUTURE ECONOMIC DATA—IF LABOR MARKET COOLS FURTHER, CUTTING RATES COULD BE APPROPRIATE; OTHERWISE, NO FURTHER RATE CHANGES EXPECTED; CURRENT POLICY NEAR NEUTRAL,…
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match98¢+2%
DOLLAR COULD DROP 10% IF FED CUTS MORE THAN EXPECTED State Street strategist Lee Ferridge warns the dollar may fall 10% in 2026 if the Fed cuts rates more aggressively than markets anticipate under a new chair. Traders expect two cuts by year-end, but a third is possible amid…
NOFinancialJuice99%match98¢+2%
Fed's Daly: I am leaning toward more rate cuts in 2026, and it's hard to say if that's one cut or two.
NOFirst Squawk99%match98¢+2%
CITIGROUP EXPECTS FED TO DELIVER 25 BPS RATE CUTS IN MARCH, JULY AND SEPT EACH VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN JAN, MARCH AND SEPT THIS YEAR
NOFinancialJuice99%match98¢+2%
Citigroup expects the Fed to deliver 25 bps rate cuts in March, July, and September each, vs prior forecast of cuts in January, March, and September this year.
NO*Walter Bloomberg99%match98¢+2%
CITIGROUP EXPECTS FED TO DELIVER 25 BPS RATE CUTS IN MARCH, JULY AND SEPTEMBER EACH VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN JANUARY, MARCH AND SEPTEMBER THIS YEAR
NOunusual_whales99%match98¢+2%
Fed to deliver modest rate cuts in 2026, per BlackRock.
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match96¢+4%
DOLLAR MAY WEAKEN MODESTLY IN 2026 AS FED CUTS RATES RBC Capital Markets expects the U.S. dollar to decline modestly in 2026 as Fed rate cuts narrow interest-rate differentials with other developed markets. The Fed is projected to cut rates two to three times, while peers move…
NOWatcher.Guru99%match96¢+4%
JUST IN: Fed's Goolsbee says he's projecting more rate cuts than the median for 2026.
NOBenzinga98%match96¢+4%
Former Fed Economist Warns More Rate Cuts Might Signal Trouble, Says This Could Be Powell's 'Last Cut'
Where does the news lean?
5YES61NO11neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
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