How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

OpenOutcomes13as of

Market pricing makes 0 (0 bps) the favorite at 88% across 13 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

1 (25 bps)Reuters95%match92¢-1%
JP Morgan Expects US Fed to Hike Rates by 25 Bps in December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of Rates Unchanged This Year
0 (0 bps)foxnews99%match78¢+13%
Federal Reserve policymakers are increasingly concerned about inflation, and the uncertainty about the direction it may take was reflected in the minutes of the Fed's latest monetary policy meeting released on Wednesday. • • Many Americans are now wondering how many rate cuts will be made in 2026? • • Our sponsor Kalshi’s prediction market shows: • • — Exactly 0 cuts: 76% • — Exactly 1 cut: 17.8% • — Exactly 2 cuts: 4.3% • •
UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER TWO 25 BPS RATE CUTS EACH IN DECEMBER 2026 AND MARCH 2027 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER THIS YEAR (
UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER TWO 25 BPS RATE CUTS EACH IN DECEMBER 2026 AND MARCH 2027 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER THIS YEAR (
UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER TWO 25 BPS RATE CUTS EACH IN DECEMBER 2026 AND MARCH 2027 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER THIS YEAR (
2 (50 bps)redboxwire99%match11¢-73%
UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER TWO 25 BPS RATE CUTS EACH IN DECEMBER 2026 AND MARCH 2027 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER THIS YEAR
3 (75 bps)redboxwire99%match95¢+4%
UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER TWO 25 BPS RATE CUTS EACH IN DECEMBER 2026 AND MARCH 2027 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER THIS YEAR
7 (175 bps)redboxwire99%match100¢
UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER TWO 25 BPS RATE CUTS EACH IN DECEMBER 2026 AND MARCH 2027 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER THIS YEAR
8 (200 bps)redboxwire99%match99¢+1%
UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER TWO 25 BPS RATE CUTS EACH IN DECEMBER 2026 AND MARCH 2027 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER THIS YEAR
2 (50 bps)marketnews_feed99%match11¢-73%
UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER TWO 25 BPS RATE CUTS EACH IN DECEMBER 2026 AND MARCH 2027 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER THIS YEAR ...
3 (75 bps)marketnews_feed99%match95¢+4%
UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER TWO 25 BPS RATE CUTS EACH IN DECEMBER 2026 AND MARCH 2027 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER THIS YEAR ...
UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER TWO 25 BPS RATE CUTS EACH IN DECEMBER 2026 AND MARCH 2027 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER THIS YEAR ...
8 (200 bps)marketnews_feed99%match99¢+1%
UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER TWO 25 BPS RATE CUTS EACH IN DECEMBER 2026 AND MARCH 2027 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER THIS YEAR ...
2 (50 bps)firstsquawk99%match11¢-73%
UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER TWO 25 BPS RATE CUTS EACH IN DECEMBER 2026 AND MARCH 2027 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER THIS YEAR
2 (50 bps)Reuters99%match11¢-73%
UBS Global Wealth Management Expects US Fed to Deliver Two 25 Bps Rate Cuts Each in December 2026 and March 2027 vs Prior Forecast of Cuts in September and December This Year
7 (175 bps)Reuters99%match100¢
UBS Global Wealth Management Expects US Fed to Deliver Two 25 Bps Rate Cuts Each in December 2026 and March 2027 vs Prior Forecast of Cuts in September and December This Year
5 (125 bps)investinglive_99%match99¢+1%
Goldman Sachs pushes Fed rate cut forecast to December 2026 •
6 (150 bps)investinglive_99%match99¢+1%
Goldman Sachs pushes Fed rate cut forecast to December 2026 •
Goldman Sachs pushes Fed rate cut forecast to December 2026 •
Goldman Sachs pushes Fed rate cut forecast to December 2026 •
BOFA GLOBAL RESEARCH EXPECTS US FEDERAL RESERVE TO DELIVER TWO 25 BP RATE CUTS EACH IN JULY AND SEPTEMBER 2027 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER 2026 • (
2 (50 bps)investinglive_99%match12¢-75%
Goldman Sachs expects US Fed to deliver two 25 bp rate cuts each in December 2026 and March 2027 vs prior forecast of cuts in September and December this year
7 (175 bps)investinglive_99%match99¢+1%
Goldman Sachs expects US Fed to deliver two 25 bp rate cuts each in December 2026 and March 2027 vs prior forecast of cuts in September and December this year
Goldman Sachs expects US Fed to deliver two 25 bp rate cuts each in December 2026 and March 2027 vs prior forecast of cuts in September and December this year
Goldman Sachs expects US Fed to deliver two 25 bp rate cuts each in December 2026 and March 2027 vs prior forecast of cuts in September and December this year
2 (50 bps)Reuters99%match88¢+10%
Goldman Sachs Expects US Fed to Deliver Two 25 Bp Rate Cuts Each in December 2026 and March 2027 vs Prior Forecast of Cuts in September and December This Year
3 (75 bps)Reuters99%match94¢+5%
Goldman Sachs Expects US Fed to Deliver Two 25 Bp Rate Cuts Each in December 2026 and March 2027 vs Prior Forecast of Cuts in September and December This Year
4 (100 bps)Reuters99%match98¢+2%
Goldman Sachs Expects US Fed to Deliver Two 25 Bp Rate Cuts Each in December 2026 and March 2027 vs Prior Forecast of Cuts in September and December This Year
7 (175 bps)Reuters99%match99¢+1%
Goldman Sachs Expects US Fed to Deliver Two 25 Bp Rate Cuts Each in December 2026 and March 2027 vs Prior Forecast of Cuts in September and December This Year
8 (200 bps)Reuters99%match100¢
Goldman Sachs Expects US Fed to Deliver Two 25 Bp Rate Cuts Each in December 2026 and March 2027 vs Prior Forecast of Cuts in September and December This Year

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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