How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?10 (250 bps)
Open$4.9Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
16 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
'No Cuts'—Polymarket Bettors Dump Fed Rate Cut Hopes. • Polymarket bettors now give a 43% chance of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 as inflation fears mount. Here is what the prediction market data shows about the Fed's path.
*TRADERS ADD TO BETS ON ONE FED INTEREST-RATE CUT IN 2026
Traders add to bets on 1 Fed cut in 2026.
NO CUTS IN 2026? • • MARKETS NOW PRICE ZERO FED RATE CUTS AS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME, WITH ODDS RISING SHARPLY. • • WELLS FARGO HAS ALSO SHIFTED, NOW EXPECTING NO CUTS IN 2026, REVERSING ITS PRIOR CALL FOR TWO. • • "WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE EXPECTS US FED TO KEEP INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED IN 2026 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF TWO RATE CUTS THIS YEAR" • ...
NO CUTS IN 2026? • • Markets now price zero Fed rate cuts as the most likely outcome, with odds rising sharply. • • Wells Fargo has also shifted, now expecting no cuts in 2026, reversing its prior call for two. • • "WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE EXPECTS US FED TO KEEP INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED IN 2026 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF TWO RATE CUTS THIS YEAR" •
TRADERS TRIM BETS ON A FED INTEREST-RATE CUT IN 2026. ...
Traders trim bets on a Fed interest-rate cut in 2026.
Traders trim bets on a Fed interest-rate cut in 2026.
FACTBOX-Wall Street brokerages stick to two Fed rate cuts in 2026
FACTBOX-Wall Street brokerages continue to expect two Fed rate cuts by end-2026
Most brokerages retain Fed rate-cut calls as markets scale back 2026 easing bets
TREASURIES -US yields pare rise as Fed sticks to one rate cut in 2026
FED PROJECTIONS IMPLY 25 BPS OF RATE CUTS IN 2026, 25 BPS OF CUTS IN 2027
NOReuters99%match100¢
Fed Projections Imply 25 Bps of Rate Cuts in 2026, 25 Bps of Cuts in 2027
U.S. FED FUND FUTURES CONTINUE TO SLIDE, WITH ONLY 26 BASIS POINTS OF RATE CUTS NOW PRICED IN FOR THIS YEAR.
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match99¢+1%
DOLLAR COULD DROP 10% IF FED CUTS MORE THAN EXPECTED State Street strategist Lee Ferridge warns the dollar may fall 10% in 2026 if the Fed cuts rates more aggressively than markets anticipate under a new chair. Traders expect two cuts by year-end, but a third is possible amid…
Where does the news lean?
2YES16NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
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