How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?0 (0 bps)
Open$7.7Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 88% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES88¢
NO12¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Federal Reserve policymakers are increasingly concerned about inflation, and the uncertainty about the direction it may take was reflected in the minutes of the Fed's latest monetary policy meeting released on Wednesday. • • Many Americans are now wondering how many rate cuts will be made in 2026? • • Our sponsor Kalshi’s prediction market shows: • • — Exactly 0 cuts: 76% • — Exactly 1 cut: 17.8% • — Exactly 2 cuts: 4.3% • •
Money market pricing shows a nearly 69% probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting rates by the end of 2026, according to LSEG data." • • A rate hike this year is no longer a trivial possibility, but we do not expect such conditions to manifest in 2026," Deutsche Bank said.
'No Cuts'—Polymarket Bettors Dump Fed Rate Cut Hopes. • Polymarket bettors now give a 43% chance of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 as inflation fears mount. Here is what the prediction market data shows about the Fed's path.
Traders keep bets the fed will stay on hold all 2026
Wall Street brokerages stick to two Fed rate cuts in 2026 ... RTRS • • Goldman Sachs, BofA Global Research and Barclays expect the first rate reduction in September, compared with June previously • •
NO CUTS IN 2026? • • MARKETS NOW PRICE ZERO FED RATE CUTS AS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME, WITH ODDS RISING SHARPLY. • • WELLS FARGO HAS ALSO SHIFTED, NOW EXPECTING NO CUTS IN 2026, REVERSING ITS PRIOR CALL FOR TWO. • • "WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE EXPECTS US FED TO KEEP INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED IN 2026 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF TWO RATE CUTS THIS YEAR" • ...
NO CUTS IN 2026? • • Markets now price zero Fed rate cuts as the most likely outcome, with odds rising sharply. • • Wells Fargo has also shifted, now expecting no cuts in 2026, reversing its prior call for two. • • "WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE EXPECTS US FED TO KEEP INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED IN 2026 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF TWO RATE CUTS THIS YEAR" •
FACTBOX-Wall Street brokerages stick to two Fed rate cuts in 2026
US Fed likely to cut rates 25 bps in both September and December, says Nomura
Traders No Longer Price In Fed Interest Rate Cut During 2026
YESNews99%match30¢+193%
*TRADERS NO LONGER PRICE IN FED INTEREST RATE CUT DURING 2026
TRADERS NO LONGER PRICE IN FED INTEREST RATE CUT DURING 2026
*TRADERS NO LONGER PRICE IN FED INTEREST RATE CUT DURING 2026
TRADERS PARE FED RATE BETS, SEE 35% CHANCE OF 25BPS CUT IN 2026
Fed holds rates and sticks to single cut projection for 2026
TREASURIES -US yields pare rise as Fed sticks to one rate cut in 2026
Fed dot plot: no changes from Dec: FOMC expects 1 rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027
TRADERS HAVE STOPPED EXPECTING A FED RATE CUT IN 2026 AS THEY NO LONGER PRICE IT IN.
YESFinancialJuice98%match6¢+1367%
Fed's Bostic: I didn't project any rate cuts in 2026.
YESFinancialJuice99%match4¢+2100%
Fed: Seven officials penciled in no rate cuts for 2026.
Where does the news lean?
26YES38NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
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