How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?1 (25 bps)
Open$2.7Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 9% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES9¢
NO92¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOReuters95%match92¢-1%
JP Morgan Expects US Fed to Hike Rates by 25 Bps in December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of Rates Unchanged This Year
Traders No Longer Price In Fed Interest Rate Cut During 2026
Fed holds rates and sticks to single cut projection for 2026
TREASURIES -US yields pare rise as Fed sticks to one rate cut in 2026
The Fed is very split on 2026 rates (but not as bad as December, when it was a 7-way split) • 7 expect no cut • 7 expect 1 cut • 2 expect 2 cuts • 2 expect 3 cuts • 1 expects 4 cuts (Miran)
Fed dot plot: no changes from Dec: FOMC expects 1 rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027
Fed Summary • Fed projections show seven policymakers saw no rate cut in 2026, one sees rates higher in 2027. • • See end-2026 PCE inflation at 2.7% compared to 2.4% in December; core is seen at 2.7% compared to 2.5%. • • See 2.4% GDP growth in 2026 compared to 2.3% in December, see longer-run growth at 2.0% compared to 1.8% in December • • Fed maintains projections for one rate cut in 2026, one in 2027.
Fed holds rates steady, sticks with single rate-cut projection for 2026
US interest rate futures see 21 BPS of easing in 2026, unchanged from prior Fed statement.
FED MAINTAINS PROJECTIONS FOR ONE RATE CUT IN 2026, ONE IN 2027
Fed dot plot and projections: • • End-2026 rate: 3.4% (unchanged) - implies 25 bps of cuts in 2026 • End-2027 rate: 3.1% (unchanged) - implies 25 bps of cuts in 2027 • Longer run: 3.1% (prev 3.0%) • • Seven policymakers see no rate cut in 2026. One sees rates higher in 2027. • • End-2026 PCE inflation: 2.7% (prev 2.4%) • Core PCE: 2.7% (prev 2.5%) • GDP growth: 2.4% (prev 2.3%) • Unemployment: 4.4% (unchanged) • • Inflation expectations revised notably higher.
YESNews99%match31¢-71%
*FED MAINTAINS PROJECTIONS FOR ONE RATE CUT IN 2026, ONE IN 2027
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Still Projects One Rate Cut in 2026
FED PROJECTIONS IMPLY 25 BPS OF RATE CUTS IN 2026, 25 BPS OF CUTS IN 2027
*FED MAINTAINS PROJECTIONS FOR ONE RATE CUT IN 2026, ONE IN 2027
*FED MAINTAINS PROJECTIONS FOR ONE RATE CUT IN 2026, ONE IN 2027
YESReuters99%match31¢-71%
Fed Projections Imply 25 Bps of Rate Cuts in 2026, 25 Bps of Cuts in 2027
Traders no longer fully price in one Fed rate cut in 2026.
*TRADERS NO LONGER FULLY PRICE IN ONE FED RATE CUT IN 2026
YESReuters98%match7¢+29%
Market Talk: US economy 'won't justify' more than one Fed cut in 2026
Where does the news lean?
59YES33NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
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