How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?3 (75 bps)
Open$2.7Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER TWO 25 BPS RATE CUTS EACH IN DECEMBER 2026 AND MARCH 2027 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER THIS YEAR
UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER TWO 25 BPS RATE CUTS EACH IN DECEMBER 2026 AND MARCH 2027 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER THIS YEAR ...
NOReuters99%match94¢+5%
Goldman Sachs Expects US Fed to Deliver Two 25 Bp Rate Cuts Each in December 2026 and March 2027 vs Prior Forecast of Cuts in September and December This Year
FACTBOX-Wall Street brokerages stick to two Fed rate cuts in 2026
US Fed likely to cut rates 25 bps in both September and December, says Nomura
UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT EXPECT US FED TO DELIVER TWO 25 BPS RATE CUTS EACH IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN JUNE AND SEPTEMBER
BOWMAN SAYS STILL PROJECTING THREE RATE CUTS FOR 2026
*BOWMAN: STILL PROJECTING THREE RATE CUTS FOR 2026
Fed's Bowman: Still projecting three rate cuts for 2026
Fed holds rates and sticks to single cut projection for 2026
TREASURIES -US yields pare rise as Fed sticks to one rate cut in 2026
Fed dot plot and projections: • • End-2026 rate: 3.4% (unchanged) - implies 25 bps of cuts in 2026 • End-2027 rate: 3.1% (unchanged) - implies 25 bps of cuts in 2027 • Longer run: 3.1% (prev 3.0%) • • Seven policymakers see no rate cut in 2026. One sees rates higher in 2027. • • End-2026 PCE inflation: 2.7% (prev 2.4%) • Core PCE: 2.7% (prev 2.5%) • GDP growth: 2.4% (prev 2.3%) • Unemployment: 4.4% (unchanged) • • Inflation expectations revised notably higher.
FED PROJECTIONS IMPLY 25 BPS OF RATE CUTS IN 2026, 25 BPS OF CUTS IN 2027
FED SIGNALS MODEST RATE CUTS, STICKY INFLATION • • Fed officials see rates at 3.4% in 2026 and ~3.1% longer term, with modest 25 bps cuts in 2026 and 2027. Inflation forecasts were revised higher (2.7%), while unemployment holds at 4.4% and growth edges up slightly.
NOReuters99%match88¢+13%
Fed Projections Imply 25 Bps of Rate Cuts in 2026, 25 Bps of Cuts in 2027
The market is now pricing in JUST 1 rate cut in 2026 and JUST 1 rate cut in 2027
*TRADERS NO LONGER FULLY PRICE IN ONE FED RATE CUT IN 2026
NOFinancialJuice99%match73¢+36%
Fed's Daly: I am leaning toward more rate cuts in 2026, and it's hard to say if that's one cut or two.
NOFinancialJuice99%match77¢+29%
Fitch: Expect US Fed to cut rates twice in 1H26, taking fed funds rate (upper band) to 3.25%
NOReuters Business98%match77¢+29%
WATCH: The market sees a Fed rate cut this week as a near certainty, but policymakers are expected to say that the bar for another one is high. Paul Hollingsworth of BNP Paribas 360 told @Reuters why he sees only one further cut in 2026
Where does the news lean?
18YES64NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
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