Israel x Hezbollah ceasefireJune 30

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$763KResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

40 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOnytimes.com98%match0¢
In an official statement, Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group, acknowledged the cease-fire’s announcement, but did not directly address whether it would accept it. The group cautioned residents of Lebanon’s south to not head toward areas targeted by Israeli strikes during the war, saying that Israel had a “history of violating pledges and agreements.”
NOalarabytv99%match42¢-100%
Lebanon is heading towards negotiations with Israel to reach a ceasefire agreement before delving into details, but Hezbollah is "undermining the legitimacy" of the negotiations and refusing to sit down with the Israeli government.
NOthetimes.com99%match48¢-100%
Live: No ceasefire with Hezbollah, vows Israel
NObbc.com98%match38¢-100%
Israel says it will not discuss ceasefire with Hezbollah as Lebanon talks to begin Tuesday
NOabcnews.com99%match37¢-100%
Israel says it 'refused to discuss ceasefire' with Hezbollah
NOIranian Media99%match37¢-100%
Hezbollah continues attacks in response to ceasefire violations by the Israeli regime In defense of the people and Lebanon, and in response to Israeli attacks and the regime's violation of the ceasefire, Hezbollah targeted Zionist settlements and gathering places of the Zionist regime's military in the north of the occupied Palestinian territories. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
NOAl Hadath99%match37¢-100%
Israel's ambassador to Washington: We have not agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah and we refuse to discuss it with them.
NOiranintlbrk98%match35¢-100%
Israel has refused to negotiate a ceasefire with Hezbollah, but has agreed to start formal peace talks with Lebanon on Tuesday, the Israeli ambassador to the United States said Friday.
NOalarabytv98%match35¢-100%
Israel refuses to discuss a ceasefire in Lebanon
NOHezbollah98%match35¢-100%
39- At 17:00, in response to the enemy’s violation of the ceasefire agreement and its repeated attacks on the city of Tyre, and after the resistance adhered to the ceasefire and the enemy did not, the settlement of Nahariya was targeted with a rocket salvo. 40- At 17:00, in response to the enemy’s violation of the ceasefire agreement and its repeated attacks on the villages of the south, and after the resistance adhered to the ceasefire and the enemy did not, gatherings of soldiers and vehicles of the Israeli enemy army were targeted in the hills of Friz and Ghadmatha in the town of Ainata with artillery shells. 41- At 18:00, in response to the enemy’s violation of the ceasefire agreement and the targeting of the government building in Nabatieh, and after the resistance adhered to the ceasefire and the enemy did not, the settlements of Liman and Shlomi were targeted with rocket salvos. 42- At 18:00, in response to the enemy’s violation of the ceasefire agreement and its repeated attacks on the city of Tyre, and after the resistance adhered to the ceasefire and the enemy did not, the Shraga base (the administrative headquarters of the Golani Brigade Command) north of the occupied city of Acre was targeted with a missile salvo and a squadron of attack drones. 43- At 18:15 In response to the enemy’s violation of the ceasefire agreement and its repeated attacks on the villages of the South, and after the resistance adhered to the ceasefire and the enemy did not, a gathering of vehicles and soldiers of the Israeli enemy army was targeted for the second time in the vicinity of Al-Ishraq School in the city of Bint Jbeil with a rocket salvo. 44- At 18:15 In response to the enemy’s violation of the ceasefire agreement and its repeated attacks on the villages of the south, and after the resistance adhered to the ceasefire and the enemy did not, the Kiryat Shmona barracks and the Beit Hillel base were targeted with swarms of attack drones. 45- At 18:45 In response to the enemy’s violation of the ceasefire agreement and its repeated attacks on the city of Tyre, and after the resistance adhered to the ceasefire and the enemy did not, infrastructure belonging to the Israeli enemy army in the settlement of Karmiel was targeted for the second time with a missile salvo. 46- At 19:00, in response to the enemy’s violation of the ceasefire agreement and its repeated attacks on the villages of the south, and after the resistance adhered to the ceasefire and the enemy did not, a gathering of Israeli enemy army soldiers was targeted at Al-Awida hill in the border town of Al-Adisa with a drone attack, and they achieved a direct hit. 47- At 19:00, in response to the enemy’s violation of the ceasefire agreement and its repeated attacks on the villages of the south, and after the resistance adhered to the ceasefire and the enemy did not, infrastructure belonging to the Israeli enemy army in the Admit settlement was targeted with a squadron of attack drones. 48- At 19:30, in response to the enemy’s violation of the ceasefire agreement and its repeated attacks on the villages of the south, and after the resistance adhered to the ceasefire and the enemy did not, the settlement of Yir’on was targeted with a rocket salvo. 49- At 19:30, in response to the enemy’s violation of the ceasefire agreement and its repeated attacks on the villages of the South, and after the resistance adhered to the ceasefire and the enemy did not, a gathering of vehicles and soldiers of the Israeli enemy army was targeted for the third time in the vicinity of Al-Ishraq School in the city of Bint Jbeil with a rocket salvo. 50- At 20:10, in response to the enemy’s violation of the ceasefire and targeting of the government building in Nabatieh, and after the resistance adhered to the ceasefire and the enemy did not, the settlement of Nahariya was targeted for the second time with a rocket salvo. 51- At 20:15 In response to the enemy’s violation of the ceasefire agreement and its repeated attacks on the villages of the south, and after the resistance adhered to the ceasefire and the enemy did not, the settlement of Kiryat Shmona was targeted with a rocket salvo. 52- At 20:55 In response to the enemy’s violation of the ceasefire agreement and its repeated attacks on the villages of the south, and after the resistance adhered to the ceasefire and the enemy did not, the Avivim settlement was targeted for the second time with a rocket salvo. 53- At 21:10, in response to the enemy’s violation of the ceasefire agreement and its repeated attacks on the southern suburbs of Beirut, and after the resistance adhered to the ceasefire while the enemy did not, infrastructure belonging to the Israeli enemy army in the Krayot area north of the occupied city of Haifa was targeted with a missile salvo. 54- From 19:30 until 21:30, in response to the enemy’s violation of the ceasefire agreement and its repeated attacks on the villages of the South, and after the resistance adhered to the ceasefire and the enemy did not, gatherings of vehicles and soldiers of the Israeli enemy army were targeted in the vicinity of Al-Ishraq School in the city of Bint Jbeil with rocket salvos and artillery shells in batches.
NOjerusalem_post99%match39¢-100%
Hezbollah launched a rocket barrage at northern Israel and the Haifa area Thursday night, with MDA reporting no serious injuries but minor injuries as people rushed to shelters.
NOalarabytv99%match39¢-100%
Sirens sounded in several areas of Israel following a Hezbollah rocket attack, the longest-range to date.
NOalarabytv99%match39¢-100%
Live on air: Al-Araby TV correspondent reports on the exchange of fire between Hezbollah fighters and the Israeli army.
NOalarabytv98%match39¢-100%
#Breaking | Israeli media: Hezbollah launched 4 rockets towards Haifa in the latest barrage
NOalarabiya_eng99%match39¢-100%
Al Arabiya Editor, Wissam Keyrouz, explains why Hezbollah is rejecting direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon amid ongoing tensions. • • #Israel #Lebanon #Hezbollah @WissamKeyrouz @Leighanngerrans
NORussian Media99%match39¢-100%
Negotiations between Israel and Lebanon on disarming Hezbollah will take place on April 14 in Washington, The Jerusalem Post reports, citing a source. An Israeli official confirmed to Axios that the meeting will take place next week, but did not specify the exact date. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is currently inactive, JP sources clarified. According to the newspaper, Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon "for the foreseeable future to counter any threat" from Hezbollah. Follow Kommersant on Telegram | on MAX | Leave "boosts" [in reply to: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the start of direct negotiations with Lebanon on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peace between the countries. This was reported by the Israeli prime minister's press service. Subscribe to Kommersant on Telegram | on MAX | Leave boosts
NOalarabytv98%match39¢-100%
#Breaking | Eyewitnesses to Al-Araby TV: Explosion heard in Haifa after Hezbollah shelling
NOnbcnews.com99%match39¢-100%
Netanyahu doubles down on refusing ceasefire in Lebanon
NOidf98%match36¢-100%
“We continue to fight against Hezbollah with great intensity. Yesterday, we entered into a ceasefire in Iran, the IDF’s achievements in the war against Iran are unprecedented and historic. Iran before this war is not the same Iran; it is far weaker. We are prepared to resume fighting with great determination if required at any given moment” • • — IDF Chief of the General Staff LTG Eyal Zamir during a situational assessment on the outskirts of Bint Jbeil in southern Lebanon. • • Read more of the Chief of the General Staff’s full remarks here:
NOosint61399%match36¢-100%
Hezbollah MP Ali Fayyad: • • "The Lebanese government should make a ceasefire a prerequisite before taking any further steps. We emphasize adherence to the basic demands of the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon, the cessation of hostile actions, and the return of the residents."
NOcbsnews.com99%match36¢-100%
UN warns that fighting in Lebanon poses a "grave risk" to ceasefire
NOapnews.com99%match30¢-100%
UN warns that fighting in Lebanon poses a ‘grave risk’ to the ceasefire
NOasharq.com99%match30¢-100%
Lebanese sources told Asharq: Beirut demands a ceasefire before negotiations with Israel begin.
NOalarabiya_eng99%match30¢-100%
Hezbollah rejects direct negotiations with Israel and the Lebanese government should demand a ceasefire as a precondition before any further steps are taken, Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Fayyad says.
NOIDF98%match30¢-100%
From the words of the Chief of Staff, Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir: "The IDF is at war. We continue to fight against the terrorist organization Hezbollah with great force. Yesterday we entered into a ceasefire in Iran - we are prepared to return to combat in a powerful manner if necessary." Our main battleground is here in Lebanon. We continue to deepen the maneuver and continue to strike Hezbollah. This is a very powerful operation, our forces are operating on the front lines and in depth. The IDF's achievements in the war against Iran are unprecedented and historic. The Iran of before this war is not the same Iran, it is much weaker. We have hit Iran's entire value chain. The blow that Iran suffered is a blow that affects Hezbollah. Hezbollah is isolated within Lebanon and isolated from its strategic artery in Iran. The Lebanese government understands more than ever the magnitude of the problem of the existence of a fanatical radical terrorist organization on its soil. While you are operating and deepening on the front, yesterday we dealt a heavy and powerful blow to Hezbollah. They left the Dahiyya and went to other places, and from there they waged the battle. The goal that has been defined for you is to remove the direct threat to the residents of the north - which you are carrying out on the ground. While you advance and fight the enemy, when you look back we see the lights of the settlements - this is the purpose of your mission. We are ahead on all fronts and constitute the buffer between the settlements and the enemy. Our mission is clear - to continue to deepen the damage and continue to weaken Hezbollah. I see the steadfast spirit you are demonstrating. You are exhausting Hezbollah. Everywhere we are required to gain an advantage and we will defeat it clearly and significantly. There is an opportunity here - we will continue to work towards restoring security to the residents of the north over time." [in reply to: IDF Spokesperson: The Chief of Staff, assessing the situation on the outskirts of Bint Jbeil in southern Lebanon: "Our main fighting arena is here in Lebanon. The goal that has been defined for you is to remove the direct threat to the residents of the north - which you are carrying out with determination." "The IDF is at war. We continue to fight against Hezbollah with great force. Yesterday we entered into a ceasefire in Iran - the IDF's achievements in the war against Iran are unprecedented and historic. The Iran of before this war is not the same Iran, it is much weaker. We are prepared to return to combat in a powerful manner if necessary at any given moment." Chief of Staff, Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir, toured southern Lebanon today (Thursday) and conducted a situation assessment. He then approved plans for the future with the command commanders. The visit was attended by the Commander of the Northern Command, Major General Rafi Milo, the Head of the Technology and Logistics Division, Major General Rami Abudraham, the Commander of the 98th Division, Brigadier General Guy Levy, the Commander of the Givati Brigade, Colonel N., and other commanders. The Chief of Staff expressed his appreciation to the 98th Division and the Givati Brigade for the professionalism and determination with which the division and brigade operate on the battlefield. After his visit, the Chief of Staff met and spoke with the head of the Upper Galilee Council, Assaf Langelvan.]
NOSky News Arabia99%match30¢-100%
Lebanese Hezbollah MP Ali Fayyad: We reject direct negotiations with Israel
NOmarketnews_feed99%match30¢-100%
HEZBOLLAH LAWMAKER FAYYAD: GROUP REJECTS DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS WITH ISRAEL; SAYS LEBANESE GOVT SHOULD DEMAND CEASEFIRE AS PRECONDITION BEFORE ANY FURTHER STEPS ...
NOfirstsquawk99%match30¢-100%
HEZBOLLAH LAWMAKER FAYYAD: GROUP REJECTS DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS WITH ISRAEL; SAYS LEBANESE GOVT SHOULD DEMAND CEASEFIRE AS PRECONDITION BEFORE ANY FURTHER STEPS
NOmarketnews_feed99%match30¢-100%
LEBANON'S HEZBOLLAH LAWMAKER ALI FAYYAD: GROUP REJECTS DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS WITH ISRAEL. ...
NOmarketnews_feed99%match30¢-100%
LEBANON'S HEZBOLLAH LAWMAKER ALI FAYYAD: GROUP REJECTS DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS WITH ISRAEL • - LEBANESE GOVT SHOULD DEMAND CEASEFIRE AS PRECONDITION BEFORE ANY FURTHER STEPS ...
NOfinancialjuice99%match30¢-100%
Lebanon's Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Fayyad: Group rejects direct negotiations with Israel.
NOlivesquawk99%match30¢-100%
Lebanon's Hezbollah Lawmaker Ali Fayyad: Group Rejects Direct Negotiations With Israel • - Lebanese Govt Should Demand Ceasefire As Precondition Before Any Further Steps
NOFrench Media99%match30¢-100%
LIVE A Hezbollah MP reaffirms his group's rejection of direct talks between Lebanon and Israel
NOAl Arabiya98%match30¢-100%
Israeli broadcaster quotes official: Lebanon must dismiss Hezbollah ministers from the government as a confidence-building measure
NOosint61399%match30¢-100%
JUST IN • • Hezbollah MP declares the group will not accept any direct Lebanon-Israel negotiations.
NOKan Reporter99%match30¢-100%
Ali Fayyad, a member of the Hezbollah faction in the Lebanese parliament, calls in a statement on the Lebanese government to "insist on a ceasefire as a precondition before moving to any step beyond that," recalls that the organization opposes and rejects any direct negotiations between Lebanon and the "Israeli enemy," and says that "one must insist on national principles, foremost among them the Israeli withdrawal, the ceasefire, and the return of residents to their villages and towns."
NOAl Jazeera Mubasher98%match30¢-100%
Hezbollah MP Ali Fayyad: We emphasize adherence to principles, Israeli withdrawal, cessation of hostilities, and the return of residents.
NOAl Jazeera98%match30¢-100%
Hezbollah MP Ali Fayyad: We emphasize adherence to principles, Israeli withdrawal, cessation of hostilities, and the return of residents.
NON12 Reporter98%match30¢-100%
Senior Lebanese official tells Reuters: We are asking for a ceasefire before starting direct negotiations with Israel
NOAsharq99%match30¢-100%
CNN, quoting an Israeli official: There will be no ceasefire in Lebanon, and talks will take place under bombardment.

Where does the news lean?

4YES61NO18neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.

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