Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire
Resolved6as of
This hub tracks 6 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
"The steadfastness of #Hezbollah and the Islamic Resistance on the ground is the factor that paved the way for the success of the ceasefire agreement." Iranian and regional affairs expert Mohammad Mahdi Shariatmadar to #AlMayadeen
This is how Hezbollah members are celebrating the ceasefire in Beirut suburbs. • • Interesting culture.
Trump says he hopes Hezbollah 'acts nicely' during ceasefire with Israel
A 10-day ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel has entered into force. #BreakingNews
A 10-day ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel has entered into force. #BreakingNews
A 10-day ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel has entered into force. #BreakingNews
The ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel has entered into force.
The ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel has entered into force.
The ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel has entered into force.
BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) — A 10-day ceasefire agreed on by Israel and Lebanon has gone into effect
BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) — A 10-day ceasefire agreed on by Israel and Lebanon has gone into effect
BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) — A 10-day ceasefire agreed on by Israel and Lebanon has gone into effect
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has come into effect
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has come into effect
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has come into effect
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has come into effect.
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has come into effect.
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has come into effect.
The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has come into effect
The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has come into effect
The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has come into effect
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.