Israel withdraws from LebanonSeptember 30

OpenVol$258KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES2¢
NO98¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOaa_arabic92%match98¢
The Israeli newspaper Maariv reported that Israel does not intend to withdraw from the Ali Taher Heights area in southern Lebanon, despite American pressure to continue the withdrawal. This stance contradicts a Washington-sponsored negotiation process aimed at completing the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory.
NOnna-leb.gov.lb92%match98¢
An-Nahar: The eighth round of fighting between Lebanon and Israel is in September... and the escalation is open-ended.
NOKan Reporter92%match98¢
A Lebanese political source tells the Saudi-owned Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper that Hezbollah's complete evacuation of the Ali Taher Hills in southern Lebanon is the necessary path to continuing the implementation of the framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon, starting with establishing a ceasefire, expanding the pilot areas, and approving the mechanism that will be responsible for verifying the deployment of the army in the towns of Zawtar al-Gharbia, Fromm, and Serifa. The Lebanese political source added that the issue of the Ali Taher Hills will be at the center of the next round of talks to be hosted by Rome in early September between Israel and Lebanon. According to him, the future of the situation in southern Lebanon depends on Hezbollah's compliance, along with President Aoun's desire to evacuate the strategic hills, including the military facilities it has established under them. Hezbollah, the Lebanese source said, has not so far complied with the Lebanese government's desire for the army to deploy in the Ali Taher Hills, including its military facilities. The Lebanese official added that Israel's insistence on Hezbollah's withdrawal from Ali al-Tahr raises concerns that it will blow up the area, which would lead to catastrophic damage to the city of Nabatiya in southern Lebanon. At the same time, the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, affiliated with Hezbollah, reported that the American generals who met with the Lebanese senior officials clearly told them that it would be difficult to achieve qualitative progress in the negotiations and that they did not believe that there was a possibility that Israel would make a major withdrawal on the ground by the time of the Israeli elections. The Lebanese newspaper reported that the American side is exerting heavy pressure on Lebanon, and especially on the army, to take steps that Washington believes are necessary to reassure Israel about Lebanon's commitment to disarming Hezbollah. The American side, according to the report, does not deny the possibility that the IDF will carry out military lightning operations in southern Lebanon in order to reach sensitive Hezbollah sites. Netanyahu, the newspaper noted, is marketing such an operation, which in his view is a necessary continuation of what Israel has achieved in Lebanon, as it will hit Hezbollah's main command center, from which many operations against Israel originate.
NOKan Reporter94%match98¢
The Lebanese Al-Mayadeen channel reported overnight that Lebanon does not plan to participate in another round of negotiations in the coming month (after Lebanese media reported that another round of talks would open in Rome on September 1).* A Lebanese diplomatic source told the channel that some of the disagreements in the last round grew, after Israel demanded progress in the two current pilot areas before agreeing to expand them, and demanded Hezbollah's withdrawal from the Ali Taher Ridge. During the talks, the Lebanese delegation rejected Israeli claims that all of the controlled explosions that the IDF carries out every day in southern Lebanon are the destruction of Hezbollah's military infrastructure. @OmerShahar123
NOafp.com93%match96¢+2%
Israel refuses to withdraw from more south Lebanon areas at talks: source
NOaljazeera.com93%match96¢+2%
Live: Israel, Lebanon deadlocked on withdrawal process
NOiranintlbrk92%match94¢+4%
Israel's Channel 12 reported that the country has told mediators that it will not agree to further withdrawal from southern Lebanon during the Rome talks next week.
NOYnet Reporter99%match78¢+26%
The Minister of Defense says we will not leave southern Lebanon, and the Prime Minister says Israel will remain in the security zone. However, they do not guarantee that there will be no withdrawal from the line the IDF currently holds, and they do not clarify where that security zone will pass: through the five fingers of the “Northern Arrows,” the Yellow Line, or the Beaufort area? The gaps between these options are very significant.
NOcbsnews.com99%match78¢+26%
Israeli defense minister says "no U.S. demand" to withdraw forces from Lebanon
NOSemi-Official YJC News Agency99%match78¢+26%
Netanyahu: We still have work to do in Lebanon We will not withdraw from Lebanese soil. We will create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from carrying out attacks against us. @YjcNewsChannel
NOafp.com99%match78¢+26%
Israeli defence minister says 'no US demand' to withdraw from Lebanon

Where does the news lean?

10YES22NO20neutraltrailing 24h

Signal flow leans NO at 80% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

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