Israel withdraws from LebanonDecember 31
Open$200Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 8% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES8¢
NO93¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Israel's Channel 12 reported that the country has told mediators that it will not agree to further withdrawal from southern Lebanon during the Rome talks next week.
In Rome, Lebanon is pushing for Israel to adhere to a timetable for withdrawal, while Israel is conditioning its withdrawal on Hezbollah.
Israeli defense minister says "no U.S. demand" to withdraw forces from Lebanon
Netanyahu: We still have work to do in Lebanon We will not withdraw from Lebanese soil. We will create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from carrying out attacks against us. @YjcNewsChannel
Israeli defence minister says 'no US demand' to withdraw from Lebanon
Where does the news lean?
10YES9NO12neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 77% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
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See all outcomes for Israel withdraws from Lebanon — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.