Israel withdraws from LebanonJuly 31
ResolvedOutcome: No$2.2Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Lebanon is working towards a "complete Israeli withdrawal" from areas it occupies, says Prime Minister. • • Under a US-sponsored agreement, Lebanon's army is to disarm Hezbollah and the Israeli military is to withdraw from "pilot zones" where Lebanese forces will subsequently deploy. Hezbollah has rejected the agreement and refuses to lay down its weapons • •
Maariv newspaper: The Israeli army intends to complete the demolition of hundreds of buildings in two areas of southern Lebanon by the end of July 2026 Israel claims that the targeted buildings are used as military infrastructure The demolitions represent about 70 percent of the total buildings in the targeted area This development comes amid the ongoing Israeli aggression against Lebanon and widespread house demolitions in the south
A diplomatic source told Al-Hadath: Israel begins withdrawing from occupied areas in southern Lebanon under the Rome Agreement... Implementation will extend from today until next Sunday.
Live: Withdrawal of Israeli forces is sticking point for Lebanon
The Minister of Defense says we will not leave southern Lebanon, and the Prime Minister says Israel will remain in the security zone. However, they do not guarantee that there will be no withdrawal from the line the IDF currently holds, and they do not clarify where that security zone will pass: through the five fingers of the “Northern Arrows,” the Yellow Line, or the Beaufort area? The gaps between these options are very significant.
Israeli defense minister says "no U.S. demand" to withdraw forces from Lebanon
Netanyahu: We still have work to do in Lebanon We will not withdraw from Lebanese soil. We will create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from carrying out attacks against us. @YjcNewsChannel
Israeli defence minister says 'no US demand' to withdraw from Lebanon
Where does the news lean?
18YES17NO17neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
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See all outcomes for Israel withdraws from Lebanon — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.