Israel withdraws from LebanonApril 30
ResolvedOutcome: No$75Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The Lebanese president: The negotiations are based on stopping Israeli attacks, achieving withdrawal, the return of prisoners, and the deployment of the army.
The Lebanese president: The negotiations are based on stopping Israeli attacks, achieving withdrawal, the return of prisoners, and the deployment of the army.
The Lebanese President: The negotiations being prepared are based on stopping Israeli attacks and achieving Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory.
Live: Israeli forces demolish homes in southern Lebanon
Haaretz, citing sources: The Israeli army withdrew part of its forces from southern Lebanon after the ceasefire began.
Salam: We will go to Washington with a clear objective, which is the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon.
LEBANON'S SALAM: HEADING TO WASHINGTON WITH A CLEAR GOAL — A FULL WITHDRAWAL OF ISRAELI FORCES FROM LEBANON. ...
LEBANON'S SALAM: HEADING TO WASHINGTON WITH A CLEAR GOAL — A FULL WITHDRAWAL OF ISRAELI FORCES FROM LEBANON.
Lebanese Prime Minister: Our goal in the negotiations is the complete withdrawal of Israel from Lebanon and the return of prisoners and displaced persons.
Lebanese Prime Minister: We will go to Washington with one clear objective: the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon.
NOReuters99%match98¢+2%
Lebanon’s Salam: Going to Washington with Clear Objective Which is a Complete Withdrawal of Israeli Troops From Lebanon
Israeli army: We eliminated militants in southern Lebanon
Israel is preventing the return of residents of southern Lebanon to more than 50 towns.
Israel admits it will not allow Lebanese to return to their homes and villages in more than 50 towns in southern Lebanon, and the security minister says "the area must remain uninhabited."
IDF soldiers of the 91st Division raise the Israeli flag in Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon on Israel's Memorial Day
IDF soldiers of the 91st Division raise the Israeli flag in Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon on Israel's Memorial Day
IDF soldiers of the 91st Division raise the Israeli flag in Meiss al-Jabal in southern Lebanon on Israel's Memorial Day
Fighters from the 91st Division salute the Israeli flag in southern Lebanon
Reports indicate that Israel has withdrawn some of its troops from southern Lebanon, amid secrecy surrounding the number of forces deployed there.
LIVE The Israeli army announces the death of a soldier in southern Lebanon
Attacks continue in southern Lebanon: How does Israel justify this after the ceasefire agreement came into effect?
Israel army says soldier killed in south Lebanon
Israeli Army: A non-commissioned officer from the reserve forces was killed in battles in southern Lebanon yesterday
Israel is replicating the Gaza experience in Lebanon: The occupation army is drawing the boundaries of the yellow line it forcibly established in southern Lebanon.
The Israeli army announces the elimination of a Hezbollah-affiliated cell in southern Lebanon today.
The Israeli army announced today that it had eliminated a Hezbollah cell in southern Lebanon.
BREAKING: Israeli army to hold all positions in Lebanon it has 'cleared and captured' • • LIVE updates:
Live: Israel warns Lebanese may have to evacuate again
Israeli Defense Minister: Ground incursions into Lebanon and Hezbollah bombing throughout Lebanon have achieved major successes, but are not yet complete.
Israeli Defense Minister: In the event of renewed fighting, the Lebanese who have returned to the security zone will have to evacuate it immediately to complete the mission.
Where does the news lean?
0YES34NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
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