Israel withdraws from LebanonAugust 31

OpenVol$668KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

13 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOafp.com93%match99¢+1%
Israel refuses to withdraw from more south Lebanon areas at talks: source
NOKan Reporter93%match99¢+1%
Lebanese media: The next round is expected to take place on September 1, and that until then there will be no further Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon.
NOiranintl94%match99¢+1%
According to Sadaf Baghbani, a correspondent for Iran International, the seventh round of Lebanon-Israel talks was held in Rome on Tuesday, August 4, and this time hosted by Italy; previous rounds were mediated by the United States. The Lebanese government is demanding a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, and Israel says that before withdrawing, it must ensure that these areas are cleared of Hezbollah weapons. According to the latest reports, the issue of the land border between the two countries has also been put on the agenda for the first time with Israel’s consent. Hezbollah’s Secretary General accused the Lebanese government of moving in line with Israel’s demands instead of Lebanon’s interests.
NOaljazeera.com93%match99¢+1%
Live: Israel, Lebanon deadlocked on withdrawal process
NOAl Jazeera92%match99¢+1%
US State Department: Talks between Israel and Lebanon in Rome will continue until August 6
NOState Dept Spokesperson92%match99¢+1%
Building directly on the momentum from President Trump's meeting with President Aoun, Prime Minister Netanyahu, and the successful launch of the first pilot zones in southern Lebanon, the latest U.S.-facilitated talks between Israel and Lebanon began today in Rome and will continue through August 6. • • These discussions bring together technical teams from both governments to advance full implementation of the Trilateral Framework, including the pilot zone process, verified disarmament of Hizballah and other Iran-backed security threats, redeployment of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, and laying the ground for a comprehensive peace and security agreement. • • The United States remains fully committed to supporting both governments as they carry this process forward in a manner that delivers lasting security for both countries, eliminates security threats to Israel, and restores Lebanese state authority throughout the south.
NOiranintlbrk92%match97¢+3%
Israel's Channel 12 reported that the country has told mediators that it will not agree to further withdrawal from southern Lebanon during the Rome talks next week.
NOLebanese broadcaster Al-Jadeed92%match97¢+3%
Political sources told Al-Jadeed: There are no indications of a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, as the Israeli army will remain inside the Green Line, while the Rome negotiations proceed cautiously and Israel continues its military operations on the ground.
NOlivesquawk93%match97¢+3%
Source with knowledge tells the @Jerusalem_Post that no deadline has been set for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to demilitarize the designated zones. However, any further implementation of the pilot zones is contingent on the successful execution of the initial pilot program. • • The official also says that talks between Israel and Lebanon on the normalization of relations and the demilitarization of Hezbollah are expected to resume at the beginning of August.
NOYnet Reporter99%match84¢+19%
The Minister of Defense says we will not leave southern Lebanon, and the Prime Minister says Israel will remain in the security zone. However, they do not guarantee that there will be no withdrawal from the line the IDF currently holds, and they do not clarify where that security zone will pass: through the five fingers of the “Northern Arrows,” the Yellow Line, or the Beaufort area? The gaps between these options are very significant.
NOcbsnews.com99%match84¢+19%
Israeli defense minister says "no U.S. demand" to withdraw forces from Lebanon
NOSemi-Official YJC News Agency98%match84¢+19%
Netanyahu: We still have work to do in Lebanon We will not withdraw from Lebanese soil. We will create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from carrying out attacks against us. @YjcNewsChannel
NOafp.com99%match84¢+19%
Israeli defence minister says 'no US demand' to withdraw from Lebanon

Where does the news lean?

14YES29NO18neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

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