Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensiveApril 30
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$181Kas of
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This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
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Gunfire and fireworks light up the sky over Beirut as people celebrate the start of a ceasefire with Israel.
10-day ceasefire in Lebanon begins as Israel agrees to U.S.-backed deal
Israel and Lebanon Reach Deal on a 10-Day Cease-Fire
A 10-day ceasefire agreed on by Israel and Lebanon has gone into effect
And there is explicit confirmation here of what we reported in the edition, that Israel will have the possibility to act against threats [in reply to: The following statement was agreed upon by the government of Israel and the government of Lebanon: Following fruitful direct talks on April 14 between the governments of the Republic of Lebanon (hereinafter "Lebanon") and the State of Israel (hereinafter "Israel"), mediated by the United States of America, Lebanon and Israel reached an understanding that the two countries would work to create conditions conducive to lasting peace between the two countries, full recognition of each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the establishment of genuine security along their shared border, while upholding Israel's inherent right to self-defense. Both States recognize the significant challenges facing the Lebanese State from non-state armed groups, which undermine Lebanon's sovereignty and threaten regional stability. Both States understand that the activities of these groups must be reduced, so that the only forces authorized to bear arms in Lebanon are the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), the Internal Security Forces, the General Security Directorate, the General Security Directorate of the State, Lebanese Customs and the Municipal Police (hereinafter referred to as the "Lebanese Security Forces"). Israel and Lebanon confirm that the two countries are not at war and commit to conducting direct negotiations in good faith, under the guidance of the United States, with the aim of achieving a comprehensive agreement that will ensure lasting security, stability, and peace between the two countries. To this end, the United States understands the following: Israel and Lebanon have implemented a cessation of hostilities effective April 16, 2026, at 5:00 PM EST, for an initial period of ten days, as a gesture of goodwill on the part of the Government of Israel, aimed at enabling negotiations in good faith towards a permanent security and peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon. This initial period can be extended by mutual agreement between Lebanon and Israel if progress is demonstrated in the negotiations and as Lebanon effectively demonstrates its ability to assert its sovereignty. Israel will retain its right to take all necessary measures for self-defense, at any time, against planned, imminent or sustained attacks. The cessation of hostilities will not be affected thereby. In addition, it will carry out any offensive military action against Lebanese targets, including civilian, military and other State targets, on Lebanese territory by land, air and sea. Beginning April 16, 2026, at 5:00 PM Eastern Time, and thereafter, with international support, the Government of Lebanon will take significant steps to prevent Hezbollah and all other non-state armed rebel groups on Lebanese territory from carrying out any attacks, actions, or hostile activity against Israeli targets. All parties recognize the Lebanese Security Forces as having sole responsibility for Lebanon's sovereignty and national defense; no other state or group claims to be a guarantor of Lebanon's sovereignty. Israel and Lebanon request that the United States promote further direct negotiations between the two countries to resolve all remaining issues, including the demarcation of the international land border, with the aim of reaching a comprehensive agreement that will ensure lasting security, stability, and peace between the two countries. The United States understands that the above commitments will be made by Israel and Lebanon in conjunction with this announcement. These commitments are intended to create the conditions necessary for negotiations in good faith toward lasting peace and security. The United States also intends to lead international efforts to support Lebanon as part of its broader efforts to promote stability and prosperity in the region. Translation courtesy of Google, please forgive me]
Netanyahu: We will remain where we are in southern Lebanon and will reinforce our presence with forces from the sea to the Syrian border.
Reports in Israel: ‘The text of the following statement was agreed to by the Government of Israel and Government of Lebanon: • Following productive direct talks on April 14 between the governments of the Republic of Lebanon (hereinafter “Lebanon”) and the State of Israel (hereinafter “Israel”), brokered by the United States of America, Lebanon and Israel have reached an understanding in which both nations will work to create conditions conducive to lasting peace between the two countries, full recognition of each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and establishing genuine security along their shared border, while preserving Israel’s inherent right to self-defense. • Both countries recognize the significant challenges faced by the Lebanese state from non-state armed groups, which undermine Lebanon’s sovereignty and threaten regional stability. Both countries understand that those groups’ activities must be curtailed, such that the only forces authorized to bear arms in Lebanon will be the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), Internal Security Forces, Directorate of General Security, General Directorate of State Security, Lebanese Customs and Municipal Police (hereinafter “Lebanon’s security forces”). • Israel and Lebanon affirm that the two countries are not at war and commit to engaging in good-faith direct negotiations, facilitated by the United States, with the objective of achieving a comprehensive agreement that ensures lasting security, stability, and peace between the two countries. • To that end, the United States understands the following: • Israel and Lebanon will implement a cessation of hostilities beginning on April 16, 2026, at 17:00 EST, for an initial period of ten days, as a gesture of goodwill by the Government of Israel, intended to enable good-faith negotiations toward a permanent security and peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon. • This initial period may be extended by mutual agreement between Lebanon and Israel if progress is demonstrated in the negotiations and as Lebanon effectively demonstrates its ability to assert its sovereignty. • Israel shall preserve its right to take all necessary measures in self-defense, at any time, against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks. This shall not be impeded by the cessation of hostilities. Besides this, it will not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets, including civilian, military, and other state targets, in the territory of Lebanon by land, air, and sea. • From April 16, 2026, at 17:00 EST, forward, with international support, the Government of Lebanon will take meaningful steps to prevent Hezbollah and all other rogue non-state armed groups in the territory of Lebanon from carrying out any attacks, operations, or hostile activities against Israeli targets. • All parties recognize Lebanon’s security forces as having exclusive responsibility for Lebanon’s sovereignty and national defense; no other country or group has claim to be the guarantor of Lebanon’s sovereignty. • Israel and Lebanon request that the United States facilitate further direct negotiations between the two countries with the objective of resolving all remaining issues, including demarcation of the international land boundary, with a view to concluding a comprehensive agreement that ensures lasting security, stability, and peace between the two countries. • The United States understands that the above commitments will be accepted by Israel and Lebanon concurrently with this announcement. These commitments are designed to create the conditions necessary for good-faith negotiations toward enduring peace and security. The United States further intends to lead international efforts to support Lebanon as a component of its broader efforts to advance stability and prosperity in the region.’
Netanyahu says Israeli troops will remain in an expanded security zone in south Lebanon despite ceasefire
Netanyahu: I agreed to a 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon
Netanyahu: I agreed to a 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon
Netanyahu says he has agreed to a 10-day ceasefire to give peace with Lebanon a chance
Netanyahu: Israel Agreed to 10-day Ceasefire With Lebanon -- WSJ
Netanyahu announced that they accepted the 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon announced by Trump, but maintained that they would remain in the occupied territories in southern Lebanon.
Netanyahu says he has agreed to 10-day ceasefire in bid ‘to advance’ peace efforts with Lebanon
ISRAELI PM NETANYAHU: IDF TO MAINTAIN A 10 KM WIDE SECURITY ZONE IN LEBANON
YESAPws99%match95¢+5%
BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) — Israel's Netanyahu says he has agreed to 10-day ceasefire in bid 'to advance' peace efforts with Lebanon
*NETANYAHU: I AGREED TO 10-DAY CEASEFIRE IN LEBANON
*NETANYAHU: I AGREED TO 10-DAY CEASEFIRE IN LEBANON
Netanyahu: I agreed to a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon for 10 days to discuss an agreement we began discussing in Washington.
ISRAELI PM NETANYAHU: I ACCEPTED A TEMPORARY TEN-DAY TRUCE WITH LEBANON ...
ISRAELI PM NETANYAHU: I ACCEPTED A TEMPORARY TEN-DAY TRUCE WITH LEBANON
YESReuters99%match96¢+4%
Netanyahu: I Agreed to a Temporary Ten-Day Ceasefire with Lebanon
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said he had agreed to a 10-day cease-fire in Lebanon to try to advance a peace accord with Lebanon.
Israeli sources say there's no plan to move troops out of southern Lebanon
THERE ARE NO PLANS TO CEASE FIRE WITH LEBANON - JERUSALEM POST, CITING AN ISRAELI SOURCE. ...
There are no plans to cease fire with Lebanon - Jerusalem Post, citing an Israeli source.
An Israeli source told the Jerusalem Post: There are no plans for a ceasefire with #Lebanon
Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir: We have approved military plans to continue fighting in #Lebanon and Iran
NOXinhua99%match30¢-100%
Urgent: Israel rejects Washington's request for a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon -- Al Jazeera
"There is no ceasefire in Lebanon," a senior Israeli official tells me after an Al Mayadeen report that a ceasefire would start this evening. "It's in Lebanon and Israel's mutual interest to dismantle Hezbollah.
Israel maintains its no-fire policy in Lebanon, and Israeli media reports indicate the army "will not withdraw from southern Lebanon."
NOXinhua99%match51¢-100%
Flash: Israel rejects Washington's request for a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon -- Al Jazeera
Israel rejects US request for a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon - reports
Israel rejects US request for a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon - Broadcasting Authority from an Israeli source.
Israeli rejects US request for a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon - Broadcasting Authority from an Israeli source.
The Israeli Broadcasting Authority, citing an Israeli source: Israel rejects Washington's request for a temporary ceasefire in #Lebanon
Urgent | The Israeli army renews evacuation warnings for areas south of the Zahrani River and directs residents northward.
The Israeli army renews evacuation warnings for areas south of the Zahrani River and directs residents northward.
BREAKING: The Israeli army has issued a new evacuation call to south Lebanon residents. • •
ALERT: Israeli army issues new evacuation call to south Lebanon residents
BREAKING: Israeli army issues evacuation threat for residents south of Zahrani river in southern Lebanon • • LIVE updates:
Al Jazeera correspondent: Israeli artillery shelling on the town of Haboush in southern Lebanon
Israeli army: Immediate evacuation warning to residents of the area south of the Zahrani River in southern #Lebanon
Several dead, buildings destroyed, vehicle bombed... Israel and Lebanon continue to clash
Haaretz, quoting Israeli army officers: Our forces are demolishing homes in southern Lebanon in order to clear areas and impose a buffer zone.
Haaretz, citing sources: The Israeli army is working to establish additional military sites in southern Lebanon and double their number.
Haaretz, citing sources: The Israeli army is working to establish additional military sites in southern #Lebanon and double their number.
The Israeli army: We will continue to act decisively to eliminate threats in southern Lebanon to ensure the security of the residents of the north.
Netanyahu says fighting to continue in Lebanon
Where does the news lean?
74YES256NO21neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required.
Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted.
Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
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