Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive
Resolved4as of
This hub tracks 4 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
The Lebanese army: We have recorded a number of Israeli attacks since the start of the truce.
The Lebanese army: We have recorded a number of Israeli attacks since the start of the truce.
Live: Israeli forces will stay in Lebanon
IDF to residents of southern Lebanon: Despite the ceasefire entering implementation, troops remain deployed due to continued Hezbollah activity. Civilians are urged not to move south of the Litani River until further notice for their safety.
Gunfire and fireworks light up the sky over Beirut as people celebrate the start of a ceasefire with Israel.
Gunfire and fireworks light up the sky over Beirut as people celebrate the start of a ceasefire with Israel.
Israeli army: We continue to maintain our presence in southern Lebanon in response to Hezbollah activities.
10-day ceasefire in Lebanon begins as Israel agrees to U.S.-backed deal
IDF confirms striking hundreds of Hezbollah targets, ceasefire goes into effect
Israel and Lebanon Reach Deal on a 10-Day Cease-Fire
A 10-day ceasefire agreed on by Israel and Lebanon has gone into effect
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon went into effect a few minutes ago.
And there is explicit confirmation here of what we reported in the edition, that Israel will have the possibility to act against threats [in reply to: The following statement was agreed upon by the government of Israel and the government of Lebanon: Following fruitful direct talks on April 14 between the governments of the Republic of Lebanon (hereinafter "Lebanon") and the State of Israel (hereinafter "Israel"), mediated by the United States of America, Lebanon and Israel reached an understanding that the two countries would work to create conditions conducive to lasting peace between the two countries, full recognition of each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the establishment of genuine security along their shared border, while upholding Israel's inherent right to self-defense. Both States recognize the significant challenges facing the Lebanese State from non-state armed groups, which undermine Lebanon's sovereignty and threaten regional stability. Both States understand that the activities of these groups must be reduced, so that the only forces authorized to bear arms in Lebanon are the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), the Internal Security Forces, the General Security Directorate, the General Security Directorate of the State, Lebanese Customs and the Municipal Police (hereinafter referred to as the "Lebanese Security Forces"). Israel and Lebanon confirm that the two countries are not at war and commit to conducting direct negotiations in good faith, under the guidance of the United States, with the aim of achieving a comprehensive agreement that will ensure lasting security, stability, and peace between the two countries. To this end, the United States understands the following: Israel and Lebanon have implemented a cessation of hostilities effective April 16, 2026, at 5:00 PM EST, for an initial period of ten days, as a gesture of goodwill on the part of the Government of Israel, aimed at enabling negotiations in good faith towards a permanent security and peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon. This initial period can be extended by mutual agreement between Lebanon and Israel if progress is demonstrated in the negotiations and as Lebanon effectively demonstrates its ability to assert its sovereignty. Israel will retain its right to take all necessary measures for self-defense, at any time, against planned, imminent or sustained attacks. The cessation of hostilities will not be affected thereby. In addition, it will carry out any offensive military action against Lebanese targets, including civilian, military and other State targets, on Lebanese territory by land, air and sea. Beginning April 16, 2026, at 5:00 PM Eastern Time, and thereafter, with international support, the Government of Lebanon will take significant steps to prevent Hezbollah and all other non-state armed rebel groups on Lebanese territory from carrying out any attacks, actions, or hostile activity against Israeli targets. All parties recognize the Lebanese Security Forces as having sole responsibility for Lebanon's sovereignty and national defense; no other state or group claims to be a guarantor of Lebanon's sovereignty. Israel and Lebanon request that the United States promote further direct negotiations between the two countries to resolve all remaining issues, including the demarcation of the international land border, with the aim of reaching a comprehensive agreement that will ensure lasting security, stability, and peace between the two countries. The United States understands that the above commitments will be made by Israel and Lebanon in conjunction with this announcement. These commitments are intended to create the conditions necessary for negotiations in good faith toward lasting peace and security. The United States also intends to lead international efforts to support Lebanon as part of its broader efforts to promote stability and prosperity in the region. Translation courtesy of Google, please forgive me]
Netanyahu: We must take it upon ourselves to eliminate Hezbollah's missiles.
Netanyahu: We must take it upon ourselves to eliminate Hezbollah's missiles.
Netanyahu: We will remain where we are in southern Lebanon and will reinforce our presence with forces from the sea to the Syrian border.
Netanyahu: We will remain where we are in southern Lebanon and will reinforce our presence with forces from the sea to the Syrian border.
Netanyahu: We will remain where we are in southern Lebanon and will reinforce our presence with forces from the sea to the Syrian border.
Reports in Israel: ‘The text of the following statement was agreed to by the Government of Israel and Government of Lebanon: • Following productive direct talks on April 14 between the governments of the Republic of Lebanon (hereinafter “Lebanon”) and the State of Israel (hereinafter “Israel”), brokered by the United States of America, Lebanon and Israel have reached an understanding in which both nations will work to create conditions conducive to lasting peace between the two countries, full recognition of each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and establishing genuine security along their shared border, while preserving Israel’s inherent right to self-defense. • Both countries recognize the significant challenges faced by the Lebanese state from non-state armed groups, which undermine Lebanon’s sovereignty and threaten regional stability. Both countries understand that those groups’ activities must be curtailed, such that the only forces authorized to bear arms in Lebanon will be the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), Internal Security Forces, Directorate of General Security, General Directorate of State Security, Lebanese Customs and Municipal Police (hereinafter “Lebanon’s security forces”). • Israel and Lebanon affirm that the two countries are not at war and commit to engaging in good-faith direct negotiations, facilitated by the United States, with the objective of achieving a comprehensive agreement that ensures lasting security, stability, and peace between the two countries. • To that end, the United States understands the following: • Israel and Lebanon will implement a cessation of hostilities beginning on April 16, 2026, at 17:00 EST, for an initial period of ten days, as a gesture of goodwill by the Government of Israel, intended to enable good-faith negotiations toward a permanent security and peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon. • This initial period may be extended by mutual agreement between Lebanon and Israel if progress is demonstrated in the negotiations and as Lebanon effectively demonstrates its ability to assert its sovereignty. • Israel shall preserve its right to take all necessary measures in self-defense, at any time, against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks. This shall not be impeded by the cessation of hostilities. Besides this, it will not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets, including civilian, military, and other state targets, in the territory of Lebanon by land, air, and sea. • From April 16, 2026, at 17:00 EST, forward, with international support, the Government of Lebanon will take meaningful steps to prevent Hezbollah and all other rogue non-state armed groups in the territory of Lebanon from carrying out any attacks, operations, or hostile activities against Israeli targets. • All parties recognize Lebanon’s security forces as having exclusive responsibility for Lebanon’s sovereignty and national defense; no other country or group has claim to be the guarantor of Lebanon’s sovereignty. • Israel and Lebanon request that the United States facilitate further direct negotiations between the two countries with the objective of resolving all remaining issues, including demarcation of the international land boundary, with a view to concluding a comprehensive agreement that ensures lasting security, stability, and peace between the two countries. • The United States understands that the above commitments will be accepted by Israel and Lebanon concurrently with this announcement. These commitments are designed to create the conditions necessary for good-faith negotiations toward enduring peace and security. The United States further intends to lead international efforts to support Lebanon as a component of its broader efforts to advance stability and prosperity in the region.’
Netanyahu says Israeli troops will remain in an expanded security zone in south Lebanon despite ceasefire
Netanyahu says Israeli troops will remain in an expanded security zone in south Lebanon despite ceasefire
Netanyahu says Israeli troops will remain in an expanded security zone in south Lebanon despite ceasefire
BEIRUT (AP) — Netanyahu says Israeli troops will remain in an expanded security zone in south Lebanon despite ceasefire
Netanyahu: I agreed to a 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon
Netanyahu: I agreed to a 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon
Netanyahu: I agreed to a 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon
Netanyahu: I agreed to a 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon
Netanyahu says he has agreed to a 10-day ceasefire to give peace with Lebanon a chance
Netanyahu announced that they accepted the 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon announced by Trump, but maintained that they would remain in the occupied territories in southern Lebanon.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required.
Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will count if it includes a qualifying suspension of the Israeli offensive in Lebanon.
Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.