Bank of Japan Decision in October?25 bps increase
Open$63Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The Bank of Japan is reportedly in no hurry to raise interest rates consecutively, leaving room for action before the end of the year.
BoJ Is Said To Lean Against Back-To-Back Rate Hike In October – BBG • •
*The Bank of Japan is likely to postpone raising interest rates at its meeting this month, but does not rule out the possibility of a December rate hike - sources = Bloomberg *BOJ IS SAID TO LEAN AGAINST BACK-TO-BACK RATE HIKE IN OCTOBER: BBG
NONews95%match96¢+1%
*BOJ IS SAID TO LEAN AGAINST BACK-TO-BACK RATE HIKE IN OCTOBER
Foreign exchange 17:00: Yen continues to fall, trading in the low 158 yen range; expectations of an early interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan recede.
NOReuters95%match88¢+10%
Many in BoJ Cautious of Raising Interest Rates in October, Prefer to Gauge More Data on Financial Conditions, Sources Say
Government and Bank of Japan conduct rate check; tensions escalate as expectations of interest rate hikes recede; yen surges to the 156 yen range.
Government and Bank of Japan prepare to intervene by buying yen after the yen briefly surged to the 156 yen level; expectations of further interest rate hikes recede.
The government and the Bank of Japan are preparing to intervene by buying yen after the yen briefly surged to the 156 yen level, leading to expectations of a reduced likelihood of further interest rate hikes.
*Nikko Executive Officer: I expect the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike will be at its October meeting.
Where does the news lean?
18YES28NO241neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 85% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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