Bank of Japan Decision in October?50+ bps increase
Open$51Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
BoJ Is Said To Lean Against Back-To-Back Rate Hike In October – BBG • •
*The Bank of Japan is likely to postpone raising interest rates at its meeting this month, but does not rule out the possibility of a December rate hike - sources = Bloomberg *BOJ IS SAID TO LEAN AGAINST BACK-TO-BACK RATE HIKE IN OCTOBER: BBG
NONews95%match99¢
*BOJ IS SAID TO LEAN AGAINST BACK-TO-BACK RATE HIKE IN OCTOBER
"Maintain a moderate level of monetary easing and avoid drastic interest rate hikes," says Bank of Japan Policy Board member Sato.
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says "accommodative environment will be maintained" even after the September interest rate hike
NOReuters96%match99¢
Many in BoJ Cautious of Raising Interest Rates in October, Prefer to Gauge More Data on Financial Conditions, Sources Say
Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to 1.25% at policy meeting...first increase in three months, accelerating pace to address upside risk to inflation.
Government and Bank of Japan prepare to intervene by buying yen after the yen briefly surged to the 156 yen level; expectations of further interest rate hikes recede.
The government and the Bank of Japan are preparing to intervene by buying yen after the yen briefly surged to the 156 yen level, leading to expectations of a reduced likelihood of further interest rate hikes.
Japan's benchmark interest rate hits 31-year high... Governor Ueda: "Modifying pace for further hikes"
NONews92%match100¢-1%
*BOJ IS SAID TO FAVOR QUARTER-POINT HIKE, FLEXIBLE FUTURE PACE
Where does the news lean?
0YES33NO37neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 89% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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