Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Resolved19as of
This hub tracks 19 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Journalist Jaafar Salman: Iran is stalling on opening the Strait of Hormuz, preventing Oman from establishing a parallel waterway, and demanding Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon despite the Memorandum of Understanding not stipulating it. Political analyst Mossadeghpour: The parallel waterway is an attempt to wrest control of the strait from Tehran. The Iranians think like the Israelis, and the United States has not fulfilled any of its commitments.
Oman plays an important role in one of the world’s most vital maritime corridors. Canada will continue to work closely with Oman and our Gulf partners in support of regional stability and freedom of navigation.
The United States has increased its military presence in the East following the arrival of the USS Boxer and USS Portland. The Boxer carries approximately 2,200 Marines and possesses amphibious landing capabilities that allow for the deployment of boats and armored vehicles to the shore, giving US forces broader options for potential amphibious landings.
Wall Street Journal: The Revolutionary Guard sent a message to Qatari mediators that they would close the Strait of Hormuz again if they did not receive guarantees that Iran would control it exclusively, and if the United States and other countries did not stop sailing in the southern route to Oman.
Ghalibaf: Free passage through the Strait is only for 60 days / Iran will not give up its rights in the Strait of Hormuz under any circumstances The text of the understanding states that free passage through the Strait is only for 60 days, this was due to the insistence of the countries in the region and the coastal countries of the Persian Gulf, and is mainly for ships that were in that area when the war began due to the closure of the Strait. The sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz lies with Iran and Oman, and traffic in the Strait is according to the arrangements that Iran specifies. Of course, we exchange views with the coastal countries of the Persian Gulf. Iran will not give up its rights in the Strait of Hormuz under any circumstances, and these are our territorial waters. @iribnews
Based in part on the mechanisms applied in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore... The New York Times reveals a new Omani proposal submitted by Muscat to the United States and Western countries regarding the imposition of optional transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz The New York Times reported, citing sources, that the Sultanate of Oman submitted a formal proposal to the United States and its Western allies to impose transit fees on shipping companies for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the newspaper, the Omani proposal is based in part on the mechanisms applied in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. It also stipulates that the fees be officially optional, while Tehran insists on their mandatory nature. Iran had previously expressed the need to address the issue of forming a new maritime regime in the Strait of Hormuz, but if Oman does not show its willingness to define a joint framework for managing the strait, Iran will proceed independently.
Based in part on the mechanisms applied in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore... The New York Times reveals a new Omani proposal submitted by Muscat to the United States and Western countries regarding the imposition of optional transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz The New York Times reported, citing sources, that the Sultanate of Oman submitted a formal proposal to the United States and its Western allies to impose transit fees on shipping companies for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the newspaper, the Omani proposal is based in part on the mechanisms applied in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. It also stipulates that the fees be officially optional, while Tehran insists on their mandatory nature. Iran had previously expressed the need to address the issue of forming a new maritime regime in the Strait of Hormuz, but if Oman does not show its willingness to define a joint framework for managing the strait, Iran will proceed independently.
The Indian Prime Minister: In a call with the Iranian President, I emphasized the importance of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz for India and the world.
Today, I spoke with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Oman, @badralbusaidi, about the security situation in the region and the importance of maintaining maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. Oman plays a vital role in one of the world’s most strategic maritime corridors. Canada will continue to work closely with Oman and its Gulf partners to support regional stability and freedom of navigation.
The New York Times reported, citing officials and diplomats familiar with the matter, that Oman has proposed a plan under which Tehran and Muscat would charge ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz a service fee. According to the report, Oman has presented the proposal to the United States and other Western allies, and a U.S. official confirmed that Washington had received it and planned to raise its concerns with Omani officials. The New York Times wrote that the plan is partly inspired by the model of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. According to a regional diplomat, the payments would be voluntary, but an Iranian official said the fees would be mandatory.
New York Times: Iran and Oman are moving forward with plans to impose service fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, despite U.S. objections. Oman has formally presented the proposal to the United States and other Western allies. U.S. officials confirmed they have received the plan and intend to discuss their concerns with their Omani counterparts, expressing confidence that any disagreements can be resolved through technical negotiations.
The United States and Oman have made significant progress in discussing tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, The New York Times reports, citing diplomats and officials. According to them, Washington has already received a proposal from its ally on how ships will be paid for using the strait. Iranian and American officials confirmed the information to the NYT. According to one of the newspaper's sources familiar with Washington's position, the Americans have concerns about the Omani plan, which they intend to discuss soon. Subscribe to Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
The War of Routes in the Strait of Hormuz: Who Will Prevail?
The struggle for shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the United States is escalating, with limited exchanges of fire and attacks on commercial vessels. This new reality has created five competing shipping routes, leading to disruption in shipping lines.
#OnTheMap
Esmail Baghaei, spokesman for the Islamic Republic's Foreign Ministry, said in a press conference on Tuesday: "We will take whatever action is necessary to protect our interests in relation to the Strait of Hormuz." He added that we will continue our consultations with Oman to make the necessary arrangements for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and there is no need for any country, including France, to intervene in the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. Regarding the effects of signing the memorandum of understanding with the United States, Baghaei also said: "The process of selling oil and oil products has been facilitated after signing the memorandum of understanding."
New York Times: Iran and Oman are moving forward with plans to impose service fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, despite U.S. objections. Oman has formally presented the proposal to the United States and other Western allies. U.S. officials confirmed they have received the plan and intend to discuss their concerns with their Omani counterparts, expressing confidence that any disagreements can be resolved through technical negotiations.
The Council of Ministers strongly condemns the continued Iranian aggression against the State of Kuwait and the Kingdom of Bahrain, and against the security and freedom of maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, which constitutes a violation of international law and the Charter of the United Nations. The Council reiterates the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's solidarity with the two brotherly countries and its full support for all measures they take to safeguard their sovereignty and security. #SPA
The Council of Ministers strongly condemns the continued Iranian aggression against the State of Kuwait and the Kingdom of Bahrain, and against the security and freedom of maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, which constitutes a violation of international law and the Charter of the United Nations. The Council reiterates the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's solidarity with the two brotherly countries and its full support for all measures they take to safeguard their sovereignty and security. #SPA
The Council of Ministers strongly condemns the continued Iranian aggression against the State of Kuwait and the Kingdom of Bahrain, and against the security and freedom of maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, which constitutes a violation of international law and the Charter of the United Nations. The Council reiterates the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's solidarity with the two brotherly countries and its full support for all measures they take to safeguard their sovereignty and security. #SPA
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: We will continue our consultations with Oman to make the necessary arrangements for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz
Meeting of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the media, Tuesday, 27 June 2021, answer to the second question: I think that commenting on everything is neither a sign of responsibility nor will it create credibility for that country. It is necessary for all countries to try to recognize the borders correctly and to know that in many cases, the most responsible and constructive way is to let things proceed logically and normally.
We have already stated many times that Iran's commitment, according to the Memorandum of Understanding on the End of the War dated 18 June 2021, is clear regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Republic of Iran is better than any other party in both its awareness of its responsibilities and its ability to fulfill them. There is no need for others to intervene. An intervention that is definitely not done with good and positive intentions will only lead to further complication of the situation.
@MFAIran [in reply to: Meeting of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the media, Tuesday, 20th of Tihr 1405, Second Question: We witnessed statements by Mr. Emmanuel Macron, President of France, regarding the Strait of Hormuz, stating that this country, along with Oman and several other countries, has decided to take action to demin the Strait of Hormuz. Last night, Mr. Minister also had a phone call with his French counterpart. I wanted to ask what Iran's position is on these statements? @MFAIran]
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei, commenting on France's announcement of its intention to participate in demining the Strait of Hormuz, stated: "Iran's responsibility is clear according to the memorandum of understanding, and it is capable of fulfilling it. The intervention of others only complicates matters further."
Meeting of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the media, Tuesday, 20th of Tihr 1405, Second Question: We witnessed statements by Mr. Emmanuel Macron, President of France, regarding the Strait of Hormuz, stating that this country, along with Oman and several other countries, has decided to take action to demin the Strait of Hormuz. Last night, Mr. Minister also had a phone call with his French counterpart. I wanted to ask what Iran's position is on these statements? @MFAIran
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: There is no need for any country, including France, to intervene in the Strait of Hormuz issue
Qatari Foreign Ministry Spokesperson:
- Qatar is playing a financial mediating role in managing Iranian funds frozen under the agreement.
- No agreement has yet been reached allowing the transfer of frozen Iranian funds.
- Qatar is coordinating daily with the Sultanate of Oman and other countries in the region to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Qatar's position remains firm in rejecting any unilateral actions that infringe upon freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
#Breaking | Spokesperson for the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Qatar is coordinating daily with the Sultanate of Oman and countries in the region to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz
Qatar's Foreign Ministry: We are coordinating with the Sultanate of Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the safe passage for ships.
Qatar's Foreign Ministry: We are coordinating with the Sultanate of Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the safe passage for ships.
Qatar Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: We Are Coordinating with Oman on Strait of Hormuz and on Safe Passage for Vessels
Qatar Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: We Are Coordinating with Oman on Strait of Hormuz and on Safe Passage for Vessels
#Iran's Acting Defense Minister in a call with #Qatar's Minister of State for Defense Affairs: We have zero trust in the enemy & our hands remain on the trigger. Any breach of the ceasefire will trigger a necessary response. Extra-regional states must not abuse Strait of Hormuz.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.