Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?United States
ResolvedOutcome: No$43Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Wall Street Journal: The Revolutionary Guard sent a message to Qatari mediators that they would close the Strait of Hormuz again if they did not receive guarantees that Iran would control it exclusively, and if the United States and other countries did not stop sailing in the southern route to Oman.
Based in part on the mechanisms applied in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore... The New York Times reveals a new Omani proposal submitted by Muscat to the United States and Western countries regarding the imposition of optional transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz The New York Times reported, citing sources, that the Sultanate of Oman submitted a formal proposal to the United States and its Western allies to impose transit fees on shipping companies for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the newspaper, the Omani proposal is based in part on the mechanisms applied in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. It also stipulates that the fees be officially optional, while Tehran insists on their mandatory nature. Iran had previously expressed the need to address the issue of forming a new maritime regime in the Strait of Hormuz, but if Oman does not show its willingness to define a joint framework for managing the strait, Iran will proceed independently.
New York Times: Iran and Oman are moving forward with plans to impose service fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, despite U.S. objections. Oman has formally presented the proposal to the United States and other Western allies. U.S. officials confirmed they have received the plan and intend to discuss their concerns with their Omani counterparts, expressing confidence that any disagreements can be resolved through technical negotiations.
The United States and Oman have made significant progress in discussing tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, The New York Times reports, citing diplomats and officials. According to them, Washington has already received a proposal from its ally on how ships will be paid for using the strait. Iranian and American officials confirmed the information to the NYT. According to one of the newspaper's sources familiar with Washington's position, the Americans have concerns about the Omani plan, which they intend to discuss soon. Subscribe to Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
New York Times: Iran and Oman are moving forward with plans to impose service fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, despite U.S. objections. Oman has formally presented the proposal to the United States and other Western allies. U.S. officials confirmed they have received the plan and intend to discuss their concerns with their Omani counterparts, expressing confidence that any disagreements can be resolved through technical negotiations.
Middle East Monitor: Kuwait and Bahrain have become remnants of the US war on Iran When the US went to war with Iran, Iran's retaliatory plan was not limited to the Strait of Hormuz. It included countries that host US power equipment. The soil of Kuwait and Bahrain has been drawn directly into the cycle of US tension. The skies and air defenses are now bearing the consequences of decisions made in Washington. The problem is not that Bahrain and Kuwait have security relations with the United States. The problem is that these relations could turn them into remnants of the US battlefield. Iran's message, whether Washington likes it or not, is direct: if the US attacks from the region, the region will not be immune to its response. Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
Heavy US air cover was deployed over ships in the Strait of Hormuz to force them to follow a route designated by the United States. Approximately seven ships entered and exited the strait near Oman.
A partial escalation in the Middle East is inevitable, Pavel Koshkin, a senior researcher at ISCRAN, told Vedomosti. According to him, the ceasefire memorandum was and remains a pretty wrapper despite all the remaining contradictions. The United States carried out an armed provocation in order to pressure the Iranian leadership in order to achieve concessions in the ongoing negotiations, believes Rajab Safarov, Director General of the Center for the Study of Contemporary Iran. The Americans are trying to test Iran's ability to respond to military challenges, as they are confident that the Islamic Republic has emerged from the military confrontation significantly weakened. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS Application | Android [in reply to: What is known about the exchange of strikes between the US and Iran On June 27, the US Central Command (Centcom) reported that it had struck Iranian facilities. The targets were "military surveillance infrastructure, communications systems, air defense facilities, drone storage facilities, and mining assets." In retaliation, the IRGC struck eight American facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain. The authorities of Bahrain and Kuwait condemned the attacks. The exchange of strikes occurred against the backdrop of negotiations between Washington and Tehran on a memorandum of understanding (MOU). US President Donald Trump warned of a turning point on the social network Truth Social. The main news on the developing situation is in Vedomosti's report. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]
Where does the news lean?
14YES7NO8neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
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