Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Oman
ResolvedOutcome: No$1Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
19 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Journalist Jaafar Salman: Iran is stalling on opening the Strait of Hormuz, preventing Oman from establishing a parallel waterway, and demanding Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon despite the Memorandum of Understanding not stipulating it. Political analyst Mossadeghpour: The parallel waterway is an attempt to wrest control of the strait from Tehran. The Iranians think like the Israelis, and the United States has not fulfilled any of its commitments.
Ghalibaf: Free passage through the Strait is only for 60 days / Iran will not give up its rights in the Strait of Hormuz under any circumstances The text of the understanding states that free passage through the Strait is only for 60 days, this was due to the insistence of the countries in the region and the coastal countries of the Persian Gulf, and is mainly for ships that were in that area when the war began due to the closure of the Strait. The sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz lies with Iran and Oman, and traffic in the Strait is according to the arrangements that Iran specifies. Of course, we exchange views with the coastal countries of the Persian Gulf. Iran will not give up its rights in the Strait of Hormuz under any circumstances, and these are our territorial waters. @iribnews
Based in part on the mechanisms applied in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore... The New York Times reveals a new Omani proposal submitted by Muscat to the United States and Western countries regarding the imposition of optional transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz The New York Times reported, citing sources, that the Sultanate of Oman submitted a formal proposal to the United States and its Western allies to impose transit fees on shipping companies for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the newspaper, the Omani proposal is based in part on the mechanisms applied in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. It also stipulates that the fees be officially optional, while Tehran insists on their mandatory nature. Iran had previously expressed the need to address the issue of forming a new maritime regime in the Strait of Hormuz, but if Oman does not show its willingness to define a joint framework for managing the strait, Iran will proceed independently.
The New York Times reported, citing officials and diplomats familiar with the matter, that Oman has proposed a plan under which Tehran and Muscat would charge ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz a service fee. According to the report, Oman has presented the proposal to the United States and other Western allies, and a U.S. official confirmed that Washington had received it and planned to raise its concerns with Omani officials. The New York Times wrote that the plan is partly inspired by the model of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. According to a regional diplomat, the payments would be voluntary, but an Iranian official said the fees would be mandatory.
YESReuters99%match1¢-100%
Qatar Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: We Are Coordinating with Oman on Strait of Hormuz and on Safe Passage for Vessels
Oman and France stress freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz "without conditions"
#SkyOnline
Iranian Foreign Ministry: If Oman is not prepared to cooperate in the mechanism for managing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will continue this work alone.
France and Oman agree to enhance maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz
Macron: France and Oman are working with their partners to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz
France and Oman agree to work on removing mines from the Strait of Hormuz
French President: We will work with Oman to remove mines from the Strait of Hormuz
France will cooperate with Oman to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
Macron: "France, Oman and other allies will clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines to allow free passage through it"
@ItaiOhelGallili
French President Macron: We have decided, in cooperation with the Sultanate of Oman, to work with partners to remove mines from the Strait of Hormuz.
Macron: We have decided to cooperate with Oman and our partners in mine clearance operations in the Strait of Hormuz to ensure freedom of navigation without conditions.
#Breaking | Macron: We have decided to cooperate with Oman and our partners in mine clearance operations in the Strait of Hormuz to ensure freedom of navigation without conditions
Macron: We have decided, in cooperation with the Sultanate of Oman, to work with partners to remove mines from the Strait of Hormuz.
French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France and Oman have agreed to cooperate with their partners to demin the Strait of Hormuz.
Macron: We have decided, in cooperation with the Sultanate of Oman, to work with partners to remove mines from the Strait of Hormuz.
Where does the news lean?
34YES11NO103neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
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