Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?Oman

OpenVol$4KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES2¢
NO98¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

YESsharghdaily97%match7¢-71%
The Wall Street Journal claimed: Mediators including Qatar are pushing for a new round of talks between Iran and the United States in Oman early next week Mediators including Qatar are pushing for a new round of talks in Oman, possibly as early as next week, to persuade Washington and Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin the process of ending the war. / Elektrik
YESentekhab_news97%match7¢-71%
Wall Street Journal: Mediators including Qatar are pushing for a new round of talks between Iran and the United States in Oman early next week Mediators including Qatar are pushing for a new round of talks in Oman, possibly as early as next week, to persuade Washington and Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin the process of ending the war. / Elektrik
YESiranintl92%match8¢-75%
The Wall Street Journal reported, citing informed sources, that efforts to resume talks between the United States and the Islamic Republic have been met with opposition from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who have opposed any concessions to Tehran. According to informed sources, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates have urged the administration of US President Donald Trump to maintain economic pressure and sanctions against the Islamic Republic and not to agree to concessions that would lead to a reduction in sanctions or the lifting of the US naval blockade. In contrast, Qatar and Oman are trying to resume talks. Qatar has proposed a seven-day ceasefire, under which Iran's attacks on shipping could be halted in exchange for the lifting of the US blockade. The report also quoted Arab mediators as saying that the Islamic Republic's diplomats have made proposals to end the war, but the Revolutionary Guard Corps has said it is not willing to consider new formulas for an agreement and is prepared for a long war.

Where does the news lean?

14YES1NO2neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.

What would make this resolve YES?

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran begins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Individuals authorized only for technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, preparatory, or working-group-level talks will not be considered designated to conduct diplomatic negotiations on behalf of the head of state or head of government. This definition includes, but is not limited to, all of the following individuals: for the United States, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; and for Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. In each case, a qualifying representative must participate in the meeting. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location. Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries is separately held alongside such a convening. The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments. If a qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins. If the next qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.” If the next qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.” For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. If the next qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.” If no qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by December 31.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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