Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?Other
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Meeting of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the media, Sunday, October 12, 1405, answer to the fifth question: Our positions were reflected to the mediator during the short stopover we had in Doha on the way back. The proposals that the Americans had are more or less in line with their previous positions and specifically concern the nuclear issues. We have clearly stated that our focus at this stage is on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. Securing the Strait of Hormuz or restoring security to this waterway requires taking specific steps by the American side. It has been discussed many times; including stopping disruptions to Iranian commercial shipping, stopping sanctions and other interventionist measures; all of which were very clearly included in the framework of the understanding of 18 June, in addition to the items that have been added in the last few months. The sanctions that the US has imposed during this period must definitely be lifted. The concerns that the Americans had and were conveyed to us by the Qatari mediator were responded to in the same meeting with our concerns. Regarding some details, we will conduct the necessary investigations and will also reflect our supplementary points to the other side. @MFAIran [in reply to: Meeting of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the media, Sunday, October 12, 1405, Question 5: After the New York trip, we witnessed Ms. Mohajerani, the government spokesperson, saying that the US proposal, or rather the US response to Iran's seven-day plan, was presented to Mr. Araghchi and Mr. Qalibaf. Other officials in our country also announced that proposals would be presented to Tehran by the mediators. Some Western news agencies published information stating that a deadlock had been reached and that the positions of Iran and the US were not aligned. Others said that the US response was in line with Iran's seven-day plan. What exactly does the US response include, and does Iran have a response to the US response? @MFAIran]
According to Trump to @BarakRavid, Iran and the US are holding talks through mediators, ahead of a possible round in the coming days. But this time too, these are indirect talks, and this is precisely where the challenge lies. Almost a week after the talks between Araqchi and Witkoff in New York, it seems that the internal struggle in Tehran is not about the negotiations themselves, but about their format. And the only format that Iran can sell at home (indirect talks) is precisely the one that is least effective for resolving the difficult issues remaining between the parties. In Vienna in 2021–2022, when Iran refused to sit down with the Americans, the talks stalled on the most sensitive points of disagreement. The nuclear agreement was also born from direct and secret talks in Oman in 2013. So the only format that the Iranians can currently sell to the base is also the one that is least capable of resolving the Hormuz issue and the other disputes that talks brokered by Qatar and others have failed to resolve for months.
President Trump tells me: More talks with Iran expected this week President Trump told me in a telephone interview today (Sunday) that he expects more talks with Iran to take place later this week, in another attempt to reach an agreement.
Why this matters: Qatar and other regional mediators are trying to renew negotiations between the US and Iran, but the gaps between the parties on key issues are still very wide.
While Iran wants to focus the talks on the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade, the Trump administration is demanding that the Iranians agree to concessions in the nuclear field.
Two regional sources confirmed Trump's words and said that they expect another round of indirect talks between the US and Iran this week, possibly as early as Monday. However, it is unclear whether the gaps can be bridged.
What he says: "I look forward to more talks with Iran [this week]. They want to make a deal, but it's not the deal I want to make. It's a deal we might have agreed to a year ago. They've stretched the rope too far," Trump said.
When asked if he was considering resuming strikes against Iran, Trump said: "I always think about it."
Snapshot: Trump said that in the meantime, the US military is pumping large amounts of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
He noted that over the weekend, the largest amount of oil ever passed through the Strait. "More than 20 million barrels," Trump said.
A US security source confirmed Trump's words and said that 22 million barrels of oil were transported through the Strait of Hormuz on Friday night.
In the news: US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held a Last Tuesday, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, a new round of indirect negotiations with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi took place. Senior Qatari officials participated in the negotiations and conveyed messages between the parties. Araqchi conveyed to Wittkoff and Kushner Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming nuclear talks. Iran offered to reopen the Strait and resume nuclear talks within a week, provided that the US lifts the naval blockade, lifts sanctions on oil sales, and renews the ceasefire throughout the region. On Saturday, Trump said he had rejected the Iranian proposal. Behind the scenes: Despite Trump's claim that he had rejected the Iranian proposal, a senior US official and two regional sources told me that Qatari mediators are continuing the indirect negotiations and are bridging the gap between the US and Iran in an attempt to Reach an agreement.
On Thursday, the Prime Minister of Qatar met in New York with the President of Iran and discussed with him a possible agreement with the Trump administration. Shortly after the meeting, senior Qatari officials met in New York with White House envoy Steve Witkoff and briefed him. A regional source involved in the indirect negotiations said that Qatari mediators discussed the original Iranian proposal with both sides, formulated a compromise proposal designed to bridge the gaps, and forwarded it to both sides for consideration. What's next: Over the weekend, Qatari mediators held separate back-and-forth talks with Iranian and American negotiating teams regarding changes to the wording. The Qatari mediators are expected to meet separately with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Witkoff, possibly as early as Monday. The other side: Araqchi told NBC on Sunday that although Trump rejected the Iranian proposal, Iran is still interested in a diplomatic solution. He said that the U.S. midterm elections are not part of Iran's considerations. "We only care about our national interests. We are ready for negotiations," he said.
"Although we heard from President Trump that he rejects this agreement... we are still waiting for an official answer through the mediators," Araqchi added.
Where does the news lean?
4YES0NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran begins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement.
A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Individuals authorized only for technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, preparatory, or working-group-level talks will not be considered designated to conduct diplomatic negotiations on behalf of the head of state or head of government. This definition includes, but is not limited to, all of the following individuals: for the United States, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; and for Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. In each case, a qualifying representative must participate in the meeting.
A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location.
Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries is separately held alongside such a convening.
The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments.
If a qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins.
If the next qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.”
If the next qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.”
For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.
If the next qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If no qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by December 31.”
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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